Tenho que ler a conclusão deste estudo.
The challenge of low real interest rates for monetary policy
Lecture by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Macroeconomics
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2016/html/sp160615.en.htmlConclusion
Let me conclude. What I have outlined today is that the low interest rates, which currently prevail, are a reflection of adverse long-term forces which have combined with the adverse implications of the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. The consequence of this has been a decline in the equilibrium real interest rate. I have also tried to portray the uncertainty around the concept and measurement of the equilibrium interest rate. Indeed, the decline in market interest rates at the global level in a context of low inflation and low – or at most moderate – economic growth with no signs of overheating, suggests that the equilibrium real rate has significantly declined and turned negative.
Our monetary policy has provided significant accommodation to limit the negative effects of the global and euro-area-specific shocks on the economy and forestall their deflationary impact. To put it simply, we have shadowed a declining equilibrium interest rate; and we will continue to do so with the full implementation of our measures. Absent of this, would have the dire consequences that the saving-invest imbalance would find the solution via a fall in nominal income levels as a means to compress savings.
By mitigating a prolongation of the recession, monetary policy can help prevent hysteresis from gaining a foothold in the labour market, which in itself weighs on an economy’s economic potential. And by boosting the productive capacity of the economy by supporting investment and capital formation, a link is established between the supply-side and the long-term.
Other policy actors, however, need to actively pursue structural policies which will ensure both a sustainable recovery and an increase in the potential economic growth of the euro area. These, in turn, will make investment more attractive, raise the equilibrium interest rate and expedite the normalisation of interest rates. Only then can we envisage a stronger recovery and can the European policy-makers deliver on their hopes of an improved prosperity for the citizens of Europe.
Thank you for your attention.