110-Day Streak Is Over - S&P Drops 1% For First Time Since October
Uma semana ou 5 dias após a 1ª queda superior a 1% em mais de 100 dias de trading, o S&P está a reagir em alta, com um ganho de 0,62% e tendo perdido apenas
-0,10% no pior valor de fecho.
Eis o quadro do site
https://lunatictrader.com/ com uma análise da evolução do índice 2 semanas, 2 meses e um ano após o 1% down day, incluindo a sequência quase centenária de 2006.
Daqui a uma semana, veremos se a média de 0,77% 10 dias após é alcançada e superada, entretanto eis o comentário atualizado de
Danny:
While most investors intuitively think that a first big down day after a long absence of such days is a bearish sign and maybe the start of a crash, history shows us otherwise. More often than not the market just keeps climbing after that first big down day. Two weeks later (10 trading days) stocks were higher 8 times out of 13. After two months (40 days) the market was higher 11/13 for an average gain of 3% (=19% annualized). And a year later the S&P 500 was higher 11/13 for an average gain of 14.8%.
While this doesn’t guarantee similar gains in the coming months, there is certainly no reason to believe that yesterday’s 1% down day is a very bearish omen. If anything you should probably use this drop to pick up some cheap long term call options in the coming days. That’s the counterintuitive thing to do here.
