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The Fallout From The Greek Crisis Threatens European Democracy
Frances Coppola
Overnight, on August 20-21, 1968, the combined forces of five Warsaw Pact countries, led by the USSR, invaded Czechoslovakia and overthrew the reforming government of Alexander Dubcek.
Dubcek’s government aimed to establish “socialism with a human face”. In April 1968, it announced an “action plan” which re-established free speech and removed state controls on industry. The ensuing period of social and democratic reform became known as the “Prague Spring”.
But there was growing disapproval of Dubcek’s reforms, not only from other Warsaw Pact governments but also from hardline Communist elements within Czechoslovakia. The end came when a visit from President Tito of Yugoslavia – a country not in the Warsaw Pact – fuelled rumours that Dubcek intended to take Czechoslovakia out of the Warsaw Pact. A few days later, tanks rolled through the streets of Prague.
The “Prague Spring” was crushed. Over 100 civilians were killed, and Dubcek and his allies were arrested.
Within days of the invasion, a “protocol” was issued which banned all parties and organisations which “violated socialist principles”. Dubcek was allowed to remain in power for a few months after signing this protocol, but the USSR eventually put in place a puppet government, led by Gustav Husak, which overturned Dubcek’s reforms and ended free speech in Czechoslovakia for a generation. Indeed, it ended it throughout the Warsaw Pact. There was no further overt opposition to Soviet dominance until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
Fast forward nearly half a century, to January 2015. The people of Greece joyfully elected a Left government that promised them an end to austerity and freedom from the debt burden that is crushing their economy. And to start with, things looked good. Yanis Varoufakis, the charismatic new Finance Minister, embarked on a whirlwind tour of EU states to drum up support for his new approach. Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, observed that the members of the Greek government were “competent, intelligent and had thought about their issues”, and should be taken seriously. And although the European Commission was not exactly happy about the idea of changing the 2012 Memorandum of Understanding, it was – at least at first – apparently prepared to negotiate a coherent and realistic alternative.
But it soon became apparent that the “core” EU states, led by Germany, were in no mood to offer Greece concessions. And the “periphery” states were not going to support the Greek government because it would encourage their own nascent anti-austerity movements. The Greek government was isolated.
The end came on July 28th, 2015, when the ECB froze financial support to Greece’s banks, forcing the Finance Minister to close them and impose strict capital controls. The people of Greece still voted against austerity in a referendum a week later. But it quickly became apparent that this vote was hollow. Faced with economic disaster due to the bank closure, and with growing calls from core states for Greece to be forced out of the Euro against the will of its population, the Greek government’s position became ever weaker.
Then the EU went in for the kill. Overnight, on July 12-13, 2015, the combined forces of the European Commission, Eurogroup and European Council broke the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, in 17 hours of mental torture.
The conditions imposed on Greece under the terms of its new bailout make its government little more than a puppet, tasked merely with implementing policies imposed by the EU institutions. But this fundamental denial of democracy has been welcomed by financial markets and ratings agencies. Despite the frankly incredible nature of the new bailout deal, Greece’s credit rating has been upgraded and its bond yields have fallen.
Greece has learned its lesson. In September, the Greek people re-elected the newly compliant Syriza government, knowing that this means more harsh austerity and only a faint glimmer of hope for debt relief and economic restoration. They decisively rejected the new party of Syriza dissidents that proposed leaving the Euro. Better poverty and privation than loss of European identity, it seems.
This has not been lost on other countries. Portugal’s President, Cavaco Silva, has just intervened in the aftermath of a democratic election, to prevent a coalition of Left parties from coming to power, dedicated to ending austerity and restoring the Portuguese economy through increased spending.The President said that Portugal cannot have an “anti-European” government:
In 40 years of democracy, no government in Portugal has ever depended on the support of anti-European forces, that is to say forces that campaigned to abrogate the Lisbon Treaty, the Fiscal Compact, the Growth and Stability Pact, as well as to dismantle monetary union and take Portugal out of the euro, in addition to wanting the dissolution of NATO.
As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph puts it,
Mr Cavaco Silva is effectively using his office to impose a reactionary ideological agenda, in the interests of creditors and the EMU establishment, and dressing it up with remarkable Chutzpah as a defence of democracy.”
And why is Mr. Silva interfering with the decision of the Portuguese people? Simple. He fears a Greek fate:
After we carried out an onerous programme of financial assistance, entailing heavy sacrifices, it is my duty, within my constitutional powers, to do everything possible to prevent false signals being sent to financial institutions, investors and markets.
The Left coalition – which insists it is not anti-EU, just anti-austerity - has rejected the President’s plan for a centre-right minority government, vowing to topple it with a vote of no confidence. The stage seems set for months of political chaos in Portugal. It is hard to see how this will please financial institutions, investors and markets, as the President suggests. No, this seems more aimed at avoiding a re-run of Syriza’s failed experiment. It is a worrying development.
Just as the crushing of the Prague Spring ended overt opposition to Soviet state communism for a generation, so the breaking of the Syriza government has ended overt opposition to the dominance of Brussels. No-one dare oppose the European institutions. True, they are unlikely to send in tanks, or shoot civilians. But the ECB can impose deprivation on whole populations if it chooses. And after the breaking of Greece, no-one is in any doubt that it would do so if it believed that would prevent failure of the Euro project.
In 1968, the President of the U.S., Lyndon Johnson, had this to say about the crushing of the Prague Spring:
It is a sad commentary on the communist mind that a sign of liberty in Czechoslovakia is deemed a fundamental threat to the security of the Soviet system.
It is indeed a sad commentary on the European mind that a sign of liberty in Greece is deemed a fundamental threat to the security of the Eurozone system.
But systems held together by fear ultimately fail. Governments that persistently deny the democratic rights of their people are eventually brought down. The growing democratic deficit at the heart of the Eurozone is the biggest threat to its survival. Eventually, just as the fall of the Berlin Wall triggered the collapse of the Iron Curtain and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, popular uprisings will bring down what Evans-Pritchard describes as the “monster” created by Brussels.
Such dramatic collapses are greeted with joy at the time, but history teaches us that the fall of empires is inevitably followed by traumatic economic and political restructuring. It can be many decades – or even centuries – before peace and prosperity are restored.
Those who want to believe that systematic denial of democracy in European states will eventually lead to the creation of a peaceful and democratic United States of Europe are deluding themselves. Denial of democracy cannot possibly bring about democracy. Nor can it create peace. When the Euro eventually fails – as it must – Europe will be once again plunged into chaos. And the longer the Euro takes to fail, and the more repressive the institutions dedicated to preserving it become, the more disastrous its eventual failure will be.
We should wind this monstrosity up. Now. Before it destroys us all.
Frances Coppola / Forbes
