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Lark

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #20 em: 2015-04-01 21:06:28 »
No, the Iran nuclear negotiations aren’t Munich in 1938

Negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program are nearing their end, and though there are still areas of disagreement, it looks more likely than not that some kind of deal will be worked out. Even though we don’t yet know what the deal will contain, we know exactly what will happen next.

The Obama administration will say that the agreement isn’t perfect but it’s nevertheless historic and constrains Iran from developing nuclear weapons, while the administration’s opponents will say that Barack Obama is Neville Chamberlain, and we just appeased Hitler all over again.

Those opponents will say this, it’s important to understand, regardless of what the deal actually does or doesn’t do. We know this for a number of reasons, most particularly that they’re already saying it. And we all have to understand what the Munich analogy really means. Anyone who uses it is really saying that we need to start a war with Iran.

Many of us roll our eyes and poke fun at endless Hitler analogies, but in this case their use is extremely revealing. If you believe that the negotiations with Iran are the equivalent of those in Munich in 1938, what you’re basically saying is that war with Iran is inevitable, so we might as well get started on it right away. After all, it isn’t as though, had Chamberlain left Munich without an agreement, Hitler would have retired and gone back to painting. The whole point of the “appeasement” argument is that the enemy cannot be appeased from his expansionist aims, and the only choice is to wage war.

That’s what Iran hawks are arguing: We shouldn’t pussyfoot around trying to find a diplomatic solution to this problem when there’s going to be a war no matter what.

Some might protest that, No, what the hawks advocate is a “better deal” on Iran’s nuclear program. But that’s a ridiculous canard. Let’s be clear about one thing: this agreement (which, we need to stress, nobody outside of the administration actually knows the details of) might indeed be a bad deal. That’s possible. But the alternative is walking away without an agreement, in which case Iran would have no reason at all not to go ahead and pursue nuclear weapons.

You can spin out a fantasy, as Benjamin Netanyahu did in his speech to Congress, of a deal in which Iran concedes every demand the United States and Israel might come up with, and also agrees to scrap its nuclear program. But that’s not remotely serious. If these talks break down, Iran isn’t going to say, “No wait! We’ll give you everything you asked for!” There will be little to stop them from ramping up their nuclear program.

And I strongly suspect that’s just what the Iran hawks really want. They think that Iran is going to do that regardless, and the sooner we realize it the better so the war can begin and we can stop them permanently. The lesson of Munich isn’t: “Make sure you negotiate carefully and get the best deal possible.” The lesson of Munich is: “Negotiations with evil tyrants only delay the inevitable war.”

But are conservatives really throwing around the Munich analogy? Yes they are.

“If we go forward with a deal that allows Iran to acquire nuclear-weapons capability, I believe that history may well record it as a mistake and a catastrophe on the order and magnitude of Munich,” says Ted Cruz.

“Mr. President: Fighting al-Qaeda made you like Churchill. Appeasing Iran will make you like Chamberlain,” read a full-page ad in yesterday’s Post from something called the World Values Network.

Columnist Victor Davis Hanson calls the eventual deal a “Munich-like agreement.” John Bolton says it “puts Obama in a category worse than Neville Chamberlain.”

The Weekly Standard asks, “Is Barack Obama another Neville Chamberlain?” (you’ll never guess the answer). Its editor, William Kristol, strolling to his Jerusalem hotel, finds his thoughts inevitably turning back to 1938: “In pondering the path of the Obama administration, I couldn’t get out of my mind Winston Churchill’s admonition to Neville Chamberlain after Munich: ‘You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war.’”

To repeat, this agreement won’t give us everything we would want in a perfect world — that’s what happens when you negotiate with an adversary. But if you’re going to advocate war with Iran, you should at least have the courage to admit that’s what you’re after. Any time you hear the words “appeasement,” “Chamberlain,” or “Munich” in the coming days and weeks — and you will — know that war is exactly what’s being promoted.

wapo
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
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So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #21 em: 2015-04-02 20:33:43 »
Iran nuclear deal framework announced

 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stressed that if a final deal is reached with Iran, the removal of any sanctions against Tehran will come in phases. "And if we find out at any point that Iran is not complying with the agreement, the sanctions can snap back into place," he said.

• The deal would see Iran reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% for 15 years and cut its installed centrifuges by more than two-thirds for 10 years, Kerry said.

• Once a final agreement is implemented, the international community will have the confidence that Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and will remain so, Kerry said.

• French President Francois Hollande said France, along with its partners, will monitor the implementation of the terms of the agreement before a final deal by the end of June, "so that the international community can be assured that Iran will not be in position to acquire a nuclear weapon."

• U.S. President Barack Obama praised the world powers that have agreed on the general terms of a deal meant to keep Iran's nuclear program peaceful. "I am convinced if this framework leads to a final, comprehensive deal, it will make our country, our allies, our world safer," Obama said Thursday from the Rose Garden at the White House.

• "If Iran cheats, the world will know it," Obama said.

• Obama said that he would reach out to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to explain and defend the tentative framework. "If, in fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for the most effective way to ensure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon, this is the best option," Obama said.

• Obama warned leaders of Congress not to stop the deal. "If Congress kills this deal not based on expert analysis and without offering any reasonable alternative, then it's the United States that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy," Obama said. "International unity will collapse."


The United States and other world powers have agreed on the general terms of a deal meant to keep Iran's nuclear program peaceful, a major breakthrough after months of high-stakes negotiations.

The deal, announced Thursday evening in Switzerland, calls for Iran to limit its enrichment capacity and stockpile in exchange for the European Union lifting economic sanctions that have hobbled Iran's economy.

Iran also agreed to enrich nuclear materials only at one plant, with other nuclear facilities converted for other uses, said Federica Mogherini, foreign policy chief for the European Union.

The United States would lift many sanctions on Iran after Iran's implementation of the agreement is confirmed.

The preliminary agreement will not put an end to Iran's enrichment activities, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said.

"None of those measures include closing any of our facilities. The proud people of Iran would never accept that," he said.

Iran will, however, abide by the agreement, which would limit enrichment activities to one location, he said.

Leading negotiators announced the deal in a news conference in Lausanne, Switzerland, where they have been meeting for months.

Negotiators must resolve additional details of a final deal by the end of June. The announcement marks the end of a round of talks that started last week.

Key points of the deal

They were supposed to reach a framework for a deal by Tuesday but stretched the talks into Thursday.

The world powers involved in the talks were the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

The talks, aimed at reaching a preliminary political deal on Iran's nuclear program, blew past their initial, self-imposed deadline of late Tuesday as Iranian and U.S. negotiators struggled to find compromises on key issues.

But the negotiators doggedly continued their work in Lausanne, trying to overcome decades of mistrust between Tehran and Washington.

The mutual mistrust had been a serious problem in the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said earlier Thursday.

"I believe respect is something that needs to be exercised in practice and in deeds, and I hope that everyone is engaging in that in mutual respect," he said.

Iran wants swift relief from punishing sanctions that have throttled its economy. And Western countries want to make sure any deal holds Iran back from being able to rapidly develop a nuclear weapon.

The Obama administration needed something solid enough it can sell to a skeptical Congress, which has threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran. The potential deal is also coming under sustained attack from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

21 questions on Iranian nuclear talks

Difficult negotiations
Negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- plus Germany began in 2006 and have had a tortured history.

Over the past nine years, the push and pull over Iran's nuclear program produced a bewildering array of proposals. Meanwhile, as talks dragged on, the United States, the European Union and others imposed sanctions on Iran, provoking resentment among the Tehran's leaders, who called the sanctions a crime against humanity.

One proposed solution that seemed for a time to gain traction was for Iran to ship to Russia much of the uranium that could be used to make nuclear weapons.

Overall, the challenge all along was twofold: To assure the international community that Iran could not develop nuclear weapons (which it denied in any event that it was doing); and to accommodate the country's assertion of its right -- as a signer of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons -- to enrich nuclear fuel for civilian purposes.

The broad outlines of a deal seem to have been clear for some time. Iran's ability to enrich nuclear material to weapons grade would be limited. In return, international sanctions would be gradually lifted.

But the devil was in the details, and the numbers, timing, sequencing and verification procedures proved devilishly difficult to resolve. Until now.

The 2013 election of Hassan Rouhani, a political moderate, to Iran's presidency infused the talks with new hope, though questions lingered over whether he could persuade the country's hard-liners to accept an agreement.

U.S. leaders also were divided over the agreement as envisioned. In a March 9 letter signed by 47 Republican U.S. senators, Iran's leaders were warned that any deal not approved by the Senate could immediately be revoked by President Barack Obama's successor in 2017.

Democrats denounced the sending of such a letter to foreign leaders as an unprecedented intervention in negotiations between the administration and another country. And Iran's leaders also dismissed the letter.

The two sides have set themselves a deadline of June 30 for reaching a final agreement.

cnn
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #22 em: 2015-04-02 20:52:00 »
comentário no twitter

Citar
This is quite ground-breaking: Iran's state TV is broadcasting Obama's speech live.


L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #23 em: 2015-04-02 20:55:38 »
Obama: Basically, I have called everyone in the world today and I'm calling Bibi later.
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #24 em: 2015-04-03 01:43:38 »
Iran Deal May Be Slow to Affect Oil Sector

HOUSTON — The breakthrough in nuclear talks with Iran on Thursday has the potential to cause a seismic shift in global energy markets over the long term, but energy experts said any appreciable impact on an already glutted global oil market was highly doubtful for at least six months and probably more than a year.

Since the European Union placed sanctions on Iranian oil in 2012, Iranian exports of crude have fallen by more than a million barrels a day — more than 1 percent of the daily global market. At a time when there is a daily excess of nearly two million barrels of supply on the world market, another million barrels a day would put further pressure on world crude prices — which have fallen about 50 percent since June.

While the agreement reached in Switzerland was tentative, the news led traders to sell oil futures and the price of the global Brent benchmark declined by nearly 4 percent, falling below $55 a barrel. Iran has as much as 20 million barrels of crude in storage — more than what the United States consumes in a day — that it could potentially release on the market.
The lifting of oil sanctions has been one of Iran’s main objectives because its economy is highly dependent on oil sales, and sanctions have caused cancellations and delays in oil exploration and production projects.

“The framework agreement lays out a path to significantly increase Iranian oil exports over time,” said Michael Levi, an energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. But he added, “You want to know how many barrels will come out of Iran next week? Zero.”

The agreement does not detail which of an intricate web of financial, oil and travel sanctions will be removed first and in what order they will be lifted. And before Iran can begin to significantly add to world supplies, the United States and its allies will need to be convinced that Tehran is living up to its commitments under the tentative agreement.

Verification could be a time-consuming process, energy experts say, since modifying nuclear equipment, dismantling centrifuges and carrying out detailed inspections can take months.

And even after verification, production and exports will take more than a year to recover because the output of Iran’s fields have been declining in recent years because of underinvestment and western sanctions.

Energy analysts at Raymond James said it was unlikely Iran could realistically increase production by more than an additional half a million barrels a day by the end of 2016.

“Let’s not ignore the technical issues here,” said a Raymond James report this week. “Once a well is shut in, resuming production is not quite flipping a switch. It is almost always the case that the subsequent rate of production ends up being below what the well was producing before.”

Iran is still among the premier oil producers in the world, and has the fourth-largest proven reserves after Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Canada. Its largest buyers are China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey. Expanded exports to those countries would put price pressure on competing members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, particularly its archrival Saudi Arabia. With higher production, Iran could challenge the leadership of Saudi Arabia in OPEC in alliance with Iraq and Venezuela.

The agreement also was viewed as a possible harbinger of closer cooperation between the United States and Iran against the Islamic State insurgency in Iraq and perhaps of a lessening of regional tensions.

“If the supreme leader accepts the agreement and Iran complies with the requirements of the deal, and if they adopt a framework friendlier to foreign investment, then Iran’s long-term future as a global supplier is significant,” said David Goldwyn, who was a senior State Department energy official in the first Obama administration. “It could have a major impact on the geopolitics of both Europe and the Middle East.”

Oil prices have been bouncing up and down in recent days as news from the nuclear talks alternately raised and diminished hopes of an agreement. Contradictory factors are likely to continue to move oil in a jagged direction in the coming weeks. On the one hand, oil supplies continue to build in the United States and globally. On the other, conflicts in Iraq and Libya threaten to trim their crude exports.

The sanctions on Iran have brought a steady decline in oil and natural gas revenue, to $56 billion in the 2013-2014 fiscal year from about $118 billion in the 2011-2012 fiscal year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

But even before western sanctions, Iranian oil production was in decline — from four million barrels a day in late 2007 to 3.5 million barrels a day only four years later. International oil companies, particularly from Europe, Russia and China, have shown an interest in returning to Iran to reinvigorate the oil industry, but it could take years of negotiations and planning for a serious effort to take root. And with oil prices in decline, oil companies are generally cutting back their exploration and production budgets.

“It’s going to be very slow for oil companies to go back,” said Dragan Vuckovic, president of Mediterranean International, an oil service company that operates in the Middle East. “It will take at least a year. Opening up takes time.”

nyt
« Última modificação: 2015-04-03 01:44:12 por Dilath Larath »
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Kin2010

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #25 em: 2015-04-03 02:11:45 »
Isto está longe de ser um grande breakthrough. Nos próximos anos vai haver uma série de ameaças de ambas as partes de voltar atrás no acordo, por a outra parte estar alegadamente a incumprir em alguma coisa. Basta ver como a crise europeia também se prolongou tantos anos e sem fim à vista.

Além disso, a instabilidade no Médio Oriente está para ficar, e para piorar. Yemen, Iraque, Líbia, nada daquilo está estabilizado.

Por isso, não se deve pensar que o crude vai ficar muitos anos assim baixinho, isso está longe de estar garantido.

Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #26 em: 2015-04-03 02:29:23 »
Isto está longe de ser um grande breakthrough. Nos próximos anos vai haver uma série de ameaças de ambas as partes de voltar atrás no acordo, por a outra parte estar alegadamente a incumprir em alguma coisa. Basta ver como a crise europeia também se prolongou tantos anos e sem fim à vista.

Além disso, a instabilidade no Médio Oriente está para ficar, e para piorar. Yemen, Iraque, Líbia, nada daquilo está estabilizado.

Por isso, não se deve pensar que o crude vai ficar muitos anos assim baixinho, isso está longe de estar garantido.

isto é um grande breakthrough. mesmo se não tivesse havido acordo, só o facto das duas partes se sentarem à mesa, já seria um grande breakthrough.
acordos tão ou mais complicados que este funcionam há décadas - acordo de paz israel / egipto.
e quanto a mim, o irão depois de comprometido, é muito mais fiável que qualquer país árabe, incluindo o egipto.
vai ser um factor de estabilização do médio oriente e por consequência bear para o petróleo. a médio / longo prazo. o petróleo iraniano não vai cair no mercado assim de repente.
O iraque está a ser resolvido com o envolvimento do próprio irão. tomaram tikrit ao ISIS hoje, por exemplo, a seguir mossul. para o ano que vem, por esta altura o ISIS vai ser uma vaga lembrança.

se os árabes, liderados pelo egipto, começarem a dialogar com o irão, acho que o panorama poe mudar e muito. e é melhor que os sauditas se apressem a fazê-lo. aquela monarquia só se aguenta com o apoio dos estados unidos. com o irão a entrar na arena petrolífera e a produção doméstica,  os US podem mandar os Al Saud beber o própio petróleo. se os sauditas não negociarem rapidamente, negoceia o egipto e israel por eles e adeus monarquia.

por isso, a surpresa, aqui pode bem ser a velocidade com que o médio oriente vai estabilizar.
em termos de especulação começava a olhar de novo para o egipto, e pela primeira vez para o irão.

mas o conjunto do médio oriente pode ser um jackpot.
demografia explosivamente jovem, petróleo  e estabilidade.

munto dinhêro meu irmão.

D/L
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Zel

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #27 em: 2015-04-03 02:37:17 »
a vitoria em tikrit ja foi ha algum tempo, mas agora livraram-se finalmente dos snipers que ficaram para tras no centro da cidade

Kin2010

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #28 em: 2015-04-03 02:54:52 »
Isto está longe de ser um grande breakthrough. Nos próximos anos vai haver uma série de ameaças de ambas as partes de voltar atrás no acordo, por a outra parte estar alegadamente a incumprir em alguma coisa. Basta ver como a crise europeia também se prolongou tantos anos e sem fim à vista.

Além disso, a instabilidade no Médio Oriente está para ficar, e para piorar. Yemen, Iraque, Líbia, nada daquilo está estabilizado.

Por isso, não se deve pensar que o crude vai ficar muitos anos assim baixinho, isso está longe de estar garantido.

isto é um grande breakthrough. mesmo se não tivesse havido acordo, só o facto das duas partes se sentarem à mesa, já seria um grande breakthrough.
acordos tão ou mais complicados que este funcionam há décadas - acordo de paz israel / egipto.
e quanto a mim, o irão depois de comprometido, é muito mais fiável que qualquer país árabe, incluindo o egipto.
vai ser um factor de estabilização do médio oriente e por consequência bear para o petróleo. a médio / longo prazo. o petróleo iraniano não vai cair no mercado assim de repente.
O iraque está a ser resolvido com o envolvimento do próprio irão. tomaram tikrit ao ISIS hoje, por exemplo, a seguir mossul. para o ano que vem, por esta altura o ISIS vai ser uma vaga lembrança.

se os árabes, liderados pelo egipto, começarem a dialogar com o irão, acho que o panorama poe mudar e muito. e é melhor que os sauditas se apressem a fazê-lo. aquela monarquia só se aguenta com o apoio dos estados unidos. com o irão a entrar na arena petrolífera e a produção doméstica,  os US podem mandar os Al Saud beber o própio petróleo. se os sauditas não negociarem rapidamente, negoceia o egipto e israel por eles e adeus monarquia.

por isso, a surpresa, aqui pode bem ser a velocidade com que o médio oriente vai estabilizar.
em termos de especulação começava a olhar de novo para o egipto, e pela primeira vez para o irão.

mas o conjunto do médio oriente pode ser um jackpot.
demografia explosivamente jovem, petróleo  e estabilidade.

munto dinhêro meu irmão.

D/L

No entanto, mesmo no que escreveste acima se nota que os focos de tensão, potencialmente explosiva, no ME, estão para ficar. Olha o que tu escreveste, e bem, sobre a Arábia Saudita: que aquela monarquia pode colapsar. Isso indica que a tensão ali vai estar a um nível horrível por anos ou décadas.

E, já agora, se o crude descer mais devido ao aumento de oferta, pioram os orçamentos doos estados da região, aumenta a instabilidade e revolta potenciais, e isso potencia nova subida do crude. O sistema tem feedback negativo.

Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #29 em: 2015-04-03 03:16:07 »
No entanto, mesmo no que escreveste acima se nota que os focos de tensão, potencialmente explosiva, no ME, estão para ficar. Olha o que tu escreveste, e bem, sobre a Arábia Saudita: que aquela monarquia pode colapsar. Isso indica que a tensão ali vai estar a um nível horrível por anos ou décadas.

Na minha opinião, o colapso da monarquia saudita seria o melhor que podia acontecer ao Médio Oriente.
É a Arábia Saudita o foco de toda a instabilidade.
Um golpe militar na Arábia Saudita que levasse a um shift de poder para mãos mais laicas, só reforçaria a estabilidade de Médio Oriente.

A Arábia Saudita é ha muitos anos o principal sponsor do terrorismo. toda a gente o sabe mas ninguém o diz abertamente.
Os Al Saud subiram ao trono amparados nos wahabitas. wahabismo=salafismo. é a doutrina religiosa radical que está por trás de todo o terrorismo.
é o que inspira a al-qaeda e o isis.

enquanto essa aliança monarquia / clero wahabita se mantiver, é que dificilmente haverá estabilidade no médio oriente..

D/L
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #30 em: 2015-04-03 03:26:55 »
You Can't Understand ISIS If You Don't Know the History of Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia

BEIRUT -- The dramatic arrival of Da'ish (ISIS) on the stage of Iraq has shocked many in the West. Many have been perplexed -- and horrified -- by its violence and its evident magnetism for Sunni youth. But more than this, they find Saudi Arabia's ambivalence in the face of this manifestation both troubling and inexplicable, wondering, "Don't the Saudis understand that ISIS threatens them, too?"

It appears -- even now -- that Saudi Arabia's ruling elite is divided. Some applaud that ISIS is fighting Iranian Shiite "fire" with Sunni "fire"; that a new Sunni state is taking shape at the very heart of what they regard as a historical Sunni patrimony; and they are drawn by Da'ish's strict Salafist ideology.

Other Saudis are more fearful, and recall the history of the revolt against Abd-al Aziz by the Wahhabist Ikhwan (Disclaimer: this Ikhwan has nothing to do with the Muslim Brotherhood Ikhwan -- please note, all further references hereafter are to the Wahhabist Ikhwan, and not to the Muslim Brotherhood Ikhwan), but which nearly imploded Wahhabism and the al-Saud in the late 1920s.

Many Saudis are deeply disturbed by the radical doctrines of Da'ish (ISIS) -- and are beginning to question some aspects of Saudi Arabia's direction and discourse.

THE SAUDI DUALITY

Saudi Arabia's internal discord and tensions over ISIS can only be understood by grasping the inherent (and persisting) duality that lies at the core of the Kingdom's doctrinal makeup and its historical origins.

One dominant strand to the Saudi identity pertains directly to Muhammad ibn ʿAbd al-Wahhab (the founder of Wahhabism), and the use to which his radical, exclusionist puritanism was put by Ibn Saud. (The latter was then no more than a minor leader -- amongst many -- of continually sparring and raiding Bedouin tribes in the baking and desperately poor deserts of the Nejd.)

The second strand to this perplexing duality, relates precisely to King Abd-al Aziz's subsequent shift towards statehood in the 1920s: his curbing of Ikhwani violence (in order to have diplomatic standing as a nation-state with Britain and America); his institutionalization of the original Wahhabist impulse -- and the subsequent seizing of the opportunely surging petrodollar spigot in the 1970s, to channel the volatile Ikhwani current away from home towards export -- by diffusing a cultural revolution, rather than violent revolution throughout the Muslim world.

But this "cultural revolution" was no docile reformism. It was a revolution based on Abd al-Wahhab's Jacobin-like hatred for the putrescence and deviationism that he perceived all about him -- hence his call to purge Islam of all its heresies and idolatries.

MUSLIM IMPOSTORS

The American author and journalist, Steven Coll, has written how this austere and censorious disciple of the 14th century scholar Ibn Taymiyyah, Abd al-Wahhab, despised "the decorous, arty, tobacco smoking, hashish imbibing, drum pounding Egyptian and Ottoman nobility who travelled across Arabia to pray at Mecca."

In Abd al-Wahhab's view, these were not Muslims; they were imposters masquerading as Muslims. Nor, indeed, did he find the behavior of local Bedouin Arabs much better. They aggravated Abd al-Wahhab by their honoring of saints, by their erecting of tombstones, and their "superstition" (e.g. revering graves or places that were deemed particularly imbued with the divine).

All this behavior, Abd al-Wahhab denounced as bida -- forbidden by God.

Like Taymiyyah before him, Abd al-Wahhab believed that the period of the Prophet Muhammad's stay in Medina was the ideal of Muslim society (the "best of times"), to which all Muslims should aspire to emulate (this, essentially, is Salafism).

Taymiyyah had declared war on Shi'ism, Sufism and Greek philosophy. He spoke out, too against visiting the grave of the prophet and the celebration of his birthday, declaring that all such behavior represented mere imitation of the Christian worship of Jesus as God (i.e. idolatry). Abd al-Wahhab assimilated all this earlier teaching, stating that "any doubt or hesitation" on the part of a believer in respect to his or her acknowledging this particular interpretation of Islam should "deprive a man of immunity of his property and his life."

One of the main tenets of Abd al-Wahhab's doctrine has become the key idea of takfir. Under the takfiri doctrine, Abd al-Wahhab and his followers could deem fellow Muslims infidels should they engage in activities that in any way could be said to encroach on the sovereignty of the absolute Authority (that is, the King). Abd al-Wahhab denounced all Muslims who honored the dead, saints, or angels. He held that such sentiments detracted from the complete subservience one must feel towards God, and only God. Wahhabi Islam thus bans any prayer to saints and dead loved ones, pilgrimages to tombs and special mosques, religious festivals celebrating saints, the honoring of the Muslim Prophet Muhammad's birthday, and even prohibits the use of gravestones when burying the dead.


"Those who would not conform to this view should be killed, their wives and daughters violated, and their possessions confiscated, he wrote. "

Abd al-Wahhab demanded conformity -- a conformity that was to be demonstrated in physical and tangible ways. He argued that all Muslims must individually pledge their allegiance to a single Muslim leader (a Caliph, if there were one). Those who would not conform to this view should be killed, their wives and daughters violated, and their possessions confiscated, he wrote. The list of apostates meriting death included the Shiite, Sufis and other Muslim denominations, whom Abd al-Wahhab did not consider to be Muslim at all.

There is nothing here that separates Wahhabism from ISIS. The rift would emerge only later: from the subsequent institutionalization of Muhammad ibn ʿAbd al-Wahhab's doctrine of "One Ruler, One Authority, One Mosque" -- these three pillars being taken respectively to refer to the Saudi king, the absolute authority of official Wahhabism, and its control of "the word" (i.e. the mosque).

It is this rift -- the ISIS denial of these three pillars on which the whole of Sunni authority presently rests -- makes ISIS, which in all other respects conforms to Wahhabism, a deep threat to Saudi Arabia.

BRIEF HISTORY 1741- 1818

Abd al-Wahhab's advocacy of these ultra radical views inevitably led to his expulsion from his own town -- and in 1741, after some wanderings, he found refuge under the protection of Ibn Saud and his tribe. What Ibn Saud perceived in Abd al-Wahhab's novel teaching was the means to overturn Arab tradition and convention. It was a path to seizing power.

"Their strategy -- like that of ISIS today -- was to bring the peoples whom they conquered into submission. They aimed to instill fear. "


Ibn Saud's clan, seizing on Abd al-Wahhab's doctrine, now could do what they always did, which was raiding neighboring villages and robbing them of their possessions. Only now they were doing it not within the ambit of Arab tradition, but rather under the banner of jihad. Ibn Saud and Abd al-Wahhab also reintroduced the idea of martyrdom in the name of jihad, as it granted those martyred immediate entry into paradise.

In the beginning, they conquered a few local communities and imposed their rule over them. (The conquered inhabitants were given a limited choice: conversion to Wahhabism or death.) By 1790, the Alliance controlled most of the Arabian Peninsula and repeatedly raided Medina, Syria and Iraq.

Their strategy -- like that of ISIS today -- was to bring the peoples whom they conquered into submission. They aimed to instill fear. In 1801, the Allies attacked the Holy City of Karbala in Iraq. They massacred thousands of Shiites, including women and children. Many Shiite shrines were destroyed, including the shrine of Imam Hussein, the murdered grandson of Prophet Muhammad.

A British official, Lieutenant Francis Warden, observing the situation at the time, wrote: "They pillaged the whole of it [Karbala], and plundered the Tomb of Hussein... slaying in the course of the day, with circumstances of peculiar cruelty, above five thousand of the inhabitants ..."

Osman Ibn Bishr Najdi, the historian of the first Saudi state, wrote that Ibn Saud committed a massacre in Karbala in 1801. He proudly documented that massacre saying, "we took Karbala and slaughtered and took its people (as slaves), then praise be to Allah, Lord of the Worlds, and we do not apologize for that and say: 'And to the unbelievers: the same treatment.'"

In 1803, Abdul Aziz then entered the Holy City of Mecca, which surrendered under the impact of terror and panic (the same fate was to befall Medina, too). Abd al-Wahhab's followers demolished historical monuments and all the tombs and shrines in their midst. By the end, they had destroyed centuries of Islamic architecture near the Grand Mosque.

But in November of 1803, a Shiite assassin killed King Abdul Aziz (taking revenge for the massacre at Karbala). His son, Saud bin Abd al Aziz, succeeded him and continued the conquest of Arabia. Ottoman rulers, however, could no longer just sit back and watch as their empire was devoured piece by piece. In 1812, the Ottoman army, composed of Egyptians, pushed the Alliance out from Medina, Jeddah and Mecca. In 1814, Saud bin Abd al Aziz died of fever. His unfortunate son Abdullah bin Saud, however, was taken by the Ottomans to Istanbul, where he was gruesomely executed (a visitor to Istanbul reported seeing him having been humiliated in the streets of Istanbul for three days, then hanged and beheaded, his severed head fired from a canon, and his heart cut out and impaled on his body).

In 1815, Wahhabi forces were crushed by the Egyptians (acting on the Ottoman's behalf) in a decisive battle. In 1818, the Ottomans captured and destroyed the Wahhabi capital of Dariyah. The first Saudi state was no more. The few remaining Wahhabis withdrew into the desert to regroup, and there they remained, quiescent for most of the 19th century.

HISTORY RETURNS WITH ISIS

It is not hard to understand how the founding of the Islamic State by ISIS in contemporary Iraq might resonate amongst those who recall this history. Indeed, the ethos of 18th century Wahhabism did not just wither in Nejd, but it roared back into life when the Ottoman Empire collapsed amongst the chaos of World War I.

The Al Saud -- in this 20th century renaissance -- were led by the laconic and politically astute Abd-al Aziz, who, on uniting the fractious Bedouin tribes, launched the Saudi "Ikhwan" in the spirit of Abd-al Wahhab's and Ibn Saud's earlier fighting proselytisers.

The Ikhwan was a reincarnation of the early, fierce, semi-independent vanguard movement of committed armed Wahhabist "moralists" who almost had succeeded in seizing Arabia by the early 1800s. In the same manner as earlier, the Ikhwan again succeeded in capturing Mecca, Medina and Jeddah between 1914 and 1926. Abd-al Aziz, however, began to feel his wider interests to be threatened by the revolutionary "Jacobinism" exhibited by the Ikhwan. The Ikhwan revolted -- leading to a civil war that lasted until the 1930s, when the King had them put down: he machine-gunned them.

For this king, (Abd-al Aziz), the simple verities of previous decades were eroding. Oil was being discovered in the peninsular. Britain and America were courting Abd-al Aziz, but still were inclined to support Sharif Husain as the only legitimate ruler of Arabia. The Saudis needed to develop a more sophisticated diplomatic posture.

So Wahhabism was forcefully changed from a movement of revolutionary jihad and theological takfiri purification, to a movement of conservative social, political, theological, and religious da'wa (Islamic call) and to justifying the institution that upholds loyalty to the royal Saudi family and the King's absolute power.

OIL WEALTH SPREAD WAHHABISM

With the advent of the oil bonanza -- as the French scholar, Giles Kepel writes, Saudi goals were to "reach out and spread Wahhabism across the Muslim world ... to "Wahhabise" Islam, thereby reducing the "multitude of voices within the religion" to a "single creed" -- a movement which would transcend national divisions. Billions of dollars were -- and continue to be -- invested in this manifestation of soft power.

It was this heady mix of billion dollar soft power projection -- and the Saudi willingness to manage Sunni Islam both to further America's interests, as it concomitantly embedded Wahhabism educationally, socially and culturally throughout the lands of Islam -- that brought into being a western policy dependency on Saudi Arabia, a dependency that has endured since Abd-al Aziz's meeting with Roosevelt on a U.S. warship (returning the president from the Yalta Conference) until today.

Westerners looked at the Kingdom and their gaze was taken by the wealth; by the apparent modernization; by the professed leadership of the Islamic world. They chose to presume that the Kingdom was bending to the imperatives of modern life -- and that the management of Sunni Islam would bend the Kingdom, too, to modern life.

"On the one hand, ISIS is deeply Wahhabist. On the other hand, it is ultra radical in a different way. It could be seen essentially as a corrective movement to contemporary Wahhabism."


But the Saudi Ikhwan approach to Islam did not die in the 1930s. It retreated, but it maintained its hold over parts of the system -- hence the duality that we observe today in the Saudi attitude towards ISIS.

On the one hand, ISIS is deeply Wahhabist. On the other hand, it is ultra radical in a different way. It could be seen essentially as a corrective movement to contemporary Wahhabism.

ISIS is a "post-Medina" movement: it looks to the actions of the first two Caliphs, rather than the Prophet Muhammad himself, as a source of emulation, and it forcefully denies the Saudis' claim of authority to rule.

As the Saudi monarchy blossomed in the oil age into an ever more inflated institution, the appeal of the Ikhwan message gained ground (despite King Faisal's modernization campaign). The "Ikhwan approach" enjoyed -- and still enjoys -- the support of many prominent men and women and sheikhs. In a sense, Osama bin Laden was precisely the representative of a late flowering of this Ikhwani approach.

Today, ISIS' undermining of the legitimacy of the King's legitimacy is not seen to be problematic, but rather a return to the true origins of the Saudi-Wahhab project.

In the collaborative management of the region by the Saudis and the West in pursuit of the many western projects (countering socialism, Ba'athism, Nasserism, Soviet and Iranian influence), western politicians have highlighted their chosen reading of Saudi Arabia (wealth, modernization and influence), but they chose to ignore the Wahhabist impulse.

After all, the more radical Islamist movements were perceived by Western intelligence services as being more effective in toppling the USSR in Afghanistan -- and in combatting out-of-favor Middle Eastern leaders and states.

Why should we be surprised then, that from Prince Bandar's Saudi-Western mandate to manage the insurgency in Syria against President Assad should have emerged a neo-Ikhwan type of violent, fear-inducing vanguard movement: ISIS? And why should we be surprised -- knowing a little about Wahhabism -- that "moderate" insurgents in Syria would become rarer than a mythical unicorn? Why should we have imagined that radical Wahhabism would create moderates? Or why could we imagine that a doctrine of "One leader, One authority, One mosque: submit to it, or be killed" could ever ultimately lead to moderation or tolerance?

Or, perhaps, we never imagined.

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« Última modificação: 2015-04-03 03:53:59 por Dilath Larath »
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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #31 em: 2015-04-03 17:05:51 »
Iran nuclear deal: Israelis say West gave away too much

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, a veteran critic of Iran’s nuclear program, swiftly denounced the preliminary nuclear agreement reached in Lausanne, Switzerland, as a naive capitulation with sweeping regional – or even global – ramifications.

“This deal would legitimize Iran's nuclear program, bolster Iran's economy, and increase Iran's aggression and terror throughout the Middle East and beyond,” he told President Obama in a phone call after the US president heralded the “historic” deal. “Such a deal would not block Iran’s path to the bomb. It would pave it.”

On Friday, he added the demand that any finalized deal with Iran include Iranian recognition of Israel’s right to exist.

It was predictable that Mr. Netanyahu and his right-wing allies would oppose the “framework” deal reached in Lausanne Thursday night. Naftali Bennett, who is angling to become foreign minister or defense minister in Netanyahu’s new government, called the deal “the 2015 Chamberlain agreement,” referring to the British prime minister’s ill-fated Munich deal in 1938 that paved the way for Hitler to expand his conquest of Europe.

But it is not just Netanyahu, fashioning himself as a modern Churchill, who believes the West made unwise concessions to a cunning Iran.

Yair Lapid, the centrist Yesh Atid party leader whose falling out with Netanyahu precipitated the collapse of his previous government late last year, said that when it comes to Iran there are no political divisions.

“We are all concerned that the Iranians will circumvent the deal, and Israel must protect its own security interests. The ayatollah’s regime has been peddling fraud and deception for years and progressing with its nuclear program. They will try, from day one, to cheat the international community as they have done in the past.”

Netanyahu convened a special cabinet meeting Friday to discuss the deal with intelligence and security chiefs, and said the cabinet is strongly united in opposing the deal.

Many Israelis, who are as native to the culture of Middle East bargaining as their Persian or Arab neighbors, are dumbfounded at the degree to which they say American and European diplomats failed to leverage their strategic advantage over a country weakened by international sanctions.

“Instead of Iran pleading to end the sanctions, Obama pleaded Iran to sign the agreement,” wrote Tim Borodin, one of many commenters responding to an article about the deal in the daily newspaper Yediot Ahronot.

Among the concessions of most concern to Israel are the fact that centrifuges at the underground Fordow plant that Iran developed in secret will remain in place, albeit not for uranium enrichment. Iran will also be able to continue research and development on advanced centrifuges, which could enable it to enrich weapons-grade uranium much faster in the future. And aspects of Iran's nuclear program with potential military dimensions (PMDs), such as Israeli assertions last September that Iran had developed a nuclear detonator at its Parchin complex, were hardly addressed.

“The dangerous aspect of this is that Iran actually will be able to maintain its breakout capability. As long as things are mothballed and not dismantled, then conceivably this could break down. And when it does, Iran will have its infrastructure basically intact,” says Emily Landau, director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Project at the independent Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on Tel Aviv University’s campus. “We have no indication from this deal that Iran’s military aspirations have changed, and that’s the key to understanding this whole issue.”

No. 1 concern: regional aggression
Some see a nuclear Iran as an existential threat to Israel, and frantically call attention to bellicose rhetoric such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s statement during last summer’s Gaza war that "Israel's annihilation is the only real cure.” The sentiment was reiterated just last week, even as work toward the framework nuclear deal was progressing.

But others, while acknowledging the extremely sensitive nature of nuclear deterrence, say the key fear is not that Iran will annihilate Israel with a nuclear weapon. Rather, nuclear weapons would embolden Iran to exert greater pressure on regional actors in order to increase its regional – or perhaps even global – sway.

Already, they say, Iran is heavily involved in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It has longstanding ties with the two most powerful militant groups opposed to Israel – Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories – and has helped them achieve the significant weapons arsenals that have sent an unprecedented number of Israelis running to bomb shelters since 2006.

“When you have nuclear weapons capabilities, other states will be very wary of confronting you, especially coercively, in response to anything you would do aggressively in the region in order to bring to bear your hegemonic aspirations,” says Dr. Landau. “I would say that’s probably the No. 1 concern.”

Military and diplomatic options
Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s outgoing Minister of Strategic Affairs from Netanyahu’s Likud party, and Nimrod Sheffer, head of the Israeli military’s Planning Directorate, maintained Thursday that an Israeli military strike is still on the table. Israel has carried out such unilateral actions before, notably on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and a Syrian reactor in 2007.


Military analysts and former intelligence officials have cautioned, however, that an Israeli strike would not be capable of destroying Iran’s program, and would risk a wider and costly regional war. Such a move now would also likely plunge already poor US-Israel relations further into crisis.

Nevertheless, some say Israel would be willing to go ahead with a strike without tacit approval from Washington.

“Can Israel do it without coordinating with the Americans? Of course. The Americans didn’t coordinate the [Lausanne] agreement with Israel,” says Yaakov Amidror, Netanyahu’s national security adviser from 2011-2013.

New missile shield
In the meantime, Israel is also improving its arsenal of missile defense systems. Last week it trumpeted a successful test of David’s Sling, a system designed to protect against attacks from Hezbollah, which has an estimated stockpile of 100,000 rockets. It is also working on a third iteration of its Arrow anti-ballistic missile system, which is designed to shoot down long-range missiles, including those fitted with a nuclear warhead.

On the diplomatic front, Israel’s options are limited, especially after the prime minister infuriated the Obama administration by imploring Congress to thwart the nuclear negotiations upon which Obama has staked so much of his effort – and perhaps his legacy as well.

But Israel is likely to intensify efforts to persuade the US as well as the international community to take a stronger stand against Iran ahead of the June 30 deadline for a final agreement.

“What we’ve been doing for a long time and we’re ready to keep doing … is to speak to reason,” Yossi Kuperwasser, outgoing director general of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, told foreign media Wednesday, adding it was in that spirit that Netanyahu took the “very rare move” or speaking to Congress without the consent of the White House. “No doubt we paid a heavy price for doing that, but … we are the ones who are the first target of the Iranians – they don’t hide it.”

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Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #32 em: 2015-04-03 17:11:06 »
Military and diplomatic options
Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s outgoing Minister of Strategic Affairs from Netanyahu’s Likud party, and Nimrod Sheffer, head of the Israeli military’s Planning Directorate, maintained Thursday that an Israeli military strike is still on the table. Israel has carried out such unilateral actions before, notably on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and a Syrian reactor in 2007.


Isto pode dar uma bronca das grandes.
Se Israel tentar um ataque surpresa ao Irão, não tenho dúvidas que os Americanos lhes deitam os caça-bombardeiros abaixo.
Israel não só sofria uma humilhação monumental, como ficava numa debilitadíssima posição negocial para quaisquer desenvolvimentos futuros no médio oriente.

Na minha opinião, os dois maiores factores de desestabilização do médio oriente, neste momento, são o Bibi / Likud / respectivas alianças ultra-nacionalistas e a monarquia saudita.

D
« Última modificação: 2015-04-03 17:58:06 por Dilath Larath »
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Incognitus

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #33 em: 2015-04-03 18:17:14 »
Se Israel bombardeasse, duvido que os EUA lhes destruíssem os bombardeiros.

Para Israel a situação é menos abstracta do que para os outros, logo o threshold que Israel tem que respeitar é muito mais elevado. Para os outros o Irão conseguir uma bomba nuclear é uma coisa quase irrelevante pelo que podem aceitar um nível de risco muito maior e serem muito mais suaves nas negociações. Para Israel trata-se de uma questão de sobrevivência.

Com o passado dos judeus, é duvidoso que estes queiram correr algum tipo de risco com a existência do seu Estado, por mínimo que seja. Para mais, Israel é particularmente vulnerável a ataques nucleares devido ao seu tamanho diminuto.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

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Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #34 em: 2015-04-03 18:25:46 »
Se Israel bombardeasse, duvido que os EUA lhes destruíssem os bombardeiros.

Depois das trabalheira que os US tiveram para chegar a este acordo? Depois do que o bibi fez ao obama, discursando no congresso à revelia dele?
Eu tenho a certeza que os deitariam abaixo!
Depois nenhum deles o reconheceria. Os israelitas não o reconheceriam porque era uma vergonhaça para eles. os americanos também não porque não lhe interessava.
mas os bombardeiros iam parar ao chão, tenho a certeza.

Isto dificilmente acontecá, porque os estados unidos já avisaram concerteza israel para não se atrever a tentar um golpe desses.
e não me parece que os israelitas tenham lata para desafiar os americanos. mas se o fizerem prejudicam-se com F maiúsculo, disso estou certo.

D
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Incognitus

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #35 em: 2015-04-03 18:30:21 »
Se Israel bombardeasse, duvido que os EUA lhes destruíssem os bombardeiros.

Depois das trabalheira que os US tiveram para chegar a este acordo? Depois do que o bibi fez ao obama, discursando no congresso à revelia dele?
Eu tenho a certeza que os deitariam abaixo!
Depois nenhum deles o reconheceria. Os israelitas não o reconheceriam porque era uma vergonhaça para eles. os americanos também não porque não lhe interessava.
mas os bombardeiros iam parar ao chão, tenho a certeza.

Isto dificilmente acontecá, porque os estados unidos já avisaram concerteza israel para não se atrever a tentar um golpe desses.
e não me parece que os israelitas tenham lata para desafiar os americanos. mas se o fizerem prejudicam-se com F maiúsculo, disso estou certo.

D

Bem, só vendo o que acontece se algo acontecer.

Mas uma coisa que é algo abstracta para os EUA e a maioria dos outros países (excepto alguns Árabes próximos do Irão) é um risco demasiado elevado para Israel correr. Pelo que algo em que os EUA e outros conseguem chegar a um acordo, pode continuar a ser um risco demasiado elevado para Israel correr.

Só Israel consegue determinar isso.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #36 em: 2015-04-03 18:48:15 »
Só Israel consegue determinar isso.

Israel pode perfeitamente determinar que o Irão continua a ser um perigo existencial e que a capacidade nuclear deste tem que ser obliterada.

Isso não quer dizer que bombardeie o Irão.
Neste caso, querer não é poder.

Israel, neste caso, só fará o que os estados unidos lhe permitirem.
Perder o apoio dos estados unidos é um perigo existencial ainda maior para Israel.

D
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Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #37 em: 2015-04-03 19:10:03 »
Os sauditas estão a mostrar terem juizinho.

Iran vows to honor nuclear deal; Saudi king gives it a cautious nod

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged Friday that his country would honor what he called a historic agreement to curb its nuclear program, provided that world powers uphold their end of the deal.

In a televised address to the nation, Reuters news agency reported, Rouhani declared in Tehran: “We don’t cheat. We are not two-faced.” He added: “If we’ve given a promise . . . we will take action based on that promise. Of course, that depends on the other side taking action on their promises, too.”

The comments came after Saudi Arabia’s King Salman expressed cautious backing for efforts to reach a final deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program, telling President Obama that he hoped it would strengthen “stability and security” in the region.

The remarks by Salman suggested no major policy shifts by Saudi Arabia or its Persian Gulf Arab partners after the announcement Thursday of a framework that would place limits on Iran’s nuclear program — but allow some level of uranium enrichment — in exchange for easing international sanctions.

But Salman’s statement, reported Friday by the official Saudi Press Agency, also stopped short of full endorsement, underscoring the unease in the gulf and wider Middle East about any steps perceived as benefiting Iran.

Rouhani told Iranians that the six major world powers negotiating with Iran have now accepted that the nation can enrich uranium on its own soil — a step they had strongly opposed as a nuclear proliferation risk but that Iran steadfastly contended was a right granted to it as a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Objections to Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, an effort that Tehran insisted on maintaining to guarantee an independent fuel supply for its nuclear power plants, have been enshrined in a series of U.N. Security Council resolutions that now are to be scrapped under the deal.

“Today is a day that will remain in the historic memory of the Iranian nation,” Rouhani said, according to Reuters.

“Some think that we must either fight the world or surrender to world powers,” he said. “We say it is neither of those; there is a third way. We can have cooperation with the world.”

Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni Muslim states in the gulf view Shiite-led Iran as their main regional rival. Tensions have further escalated as a Saudi-led coalition carries out airstrikes in Yemen aimed at weakening a Shiite rebel force, which gulf leaders say receives support from Tehran.

King Salman “expressed his hope that reaching a final binding deal would strengthen the stability and security of the region and the world,” the Saudi Press Agency reported.

wapo
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Kin2010

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #38 em: 2015-04-04 01:14:29 »
Se Israel bombardeasse, duvido que os EUA lhes destruíssem os bombardeiros.

Para Israel a situação é menos abstracta do que para os outros, logo o threshold que Israel tem que respeitar é muito mais elevado. Para os outros o Irão conseguir uma bomba nuclear é uma coisa quase irrelevante pelo que podem aceitar um nível de risco muito maior e serem muito mais suaves nas negociações. Para Israel trata-se de uma questão de sobrevivência.

Com o passado dos judeus, é duvidoso que estes queiram correr algum tipo de risco com a existência do seu Estado, por mínimo que seja. Para mais, Israel é particularmente vulnerável a ataques nucleares devido ao seu tamanho diminuto.

Qualquer ataque ao Irão é um cenário de pesadelo. Não só pela catástrofe humanitária. É uma ficção pensar que destruir 2 ou 3 centrais à superfície pararia o programa nuclear do Irão. Destruiam essas centrais facilmente, mas o programa ao fim de uns meses estava na mesma posição que antes, graças às muitas instalações subterrâneas que tinham sobrevivido, a terem o know how técnico e científico, e simplesmente a poderem investir mais $$ para suprir as perdas. Portanto o programa deles ficaria incólume, e passado 1 ano estaria mais avançado do que antes do ataque (foi calculado que o mesmo se teria passado com o Iraque, após o ataque a Osirak, se o Saddam simplesmente tivesse investido mais $$, em vez de desistir). Mais, como tinham sido atacados, poderiam alegar que agora é que iam mesmo fazer a bomba, já ninguém tinha moral para os impedir.


Dilath Larath

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Re:Iran nuclear deal
« Responder #39 em: 2015-04-04 01:44:02 »
os iranianos estão eufóricos

Raw: Iranians Celebrate Nuclear Deal
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