Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal

[I. I. Kaspov]

Acerca da fantástica religião das "alterações climáticas":


«Ominous Rumblings From The Climate Change Cult

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Jan 02, 2024 - 08:30 AM


Authored by Mark Hendrickson via The Epoch Times,


In the past, I’ve referred to the well-funded, well-organized, but scientifically vacuous climate alarmists as a “cabal” with an explicitly socialist agenda.

Indeed, in a political context that’s exactly what they are. But in a religious context, they’re a cult fanatically pushing a rigid dogma.

The climate change dogma is roughly this:

    The concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has increased markedly over the past century (true);

    human activities have contributed to that increase (true);

    Earth has warmed by more than a degree since escaping the harsh Little Ice Age in the 19th century (also true, thank goodness!);

    temperatures will continue to rise to dangerous, catastrophe-inducing levels (unproven, unknowable, and unlikely) unless human society is radically transformed by drastically curbing the human use of fossil fuels (a power-seeking agenda that would inflict widespread impoverishment and suffering on billions of human beings).

In connection with the United Nation’s recently completed annual extravaganza in climate change propaganda and hysteria—COP28—long-time alarmist Al Gore (who still wants today the “wrenching transformation” of society that he called for in his 1992 jeremiad “Earth in the Balance”) lamented the fact that some people actually disagree with the wildly speculative alarmist predictions (guesses) that he and his fellow alarmists are making about the future.

He blamed social media and algorithms for spreading what he considers disinformation (in more neutral terms: differences of perception and understanding) about climate change.

Mr. Gore explicitly called for the ban (the censorship) of social media algorithms—implicitly, those that present apostate points of view, such as de-emphasizing the role of CO2 in climate change or maintaining that Earth isn’t on the brink of climate catastrophe. (Here’s a link to the video. Start at the 22:00 minute marker to hear him say it.) He asserts that the algorithms pull listeners down into “rabbit holes” where they enter into “echo chambers.”

The “echo chamber” assertion is hugely ironic, a classic case of psychological projection.

It’s the climate change cabal/cult that sets up echo chambers at events like COP28, whereas outside of those echo chambers, there’s a wide diversity of scientific research that calls into question key parts of the cultists’ dogma from many different angles—the very opposite of an echo chamber.

Here are several recent examples of scientific dissent from the alarmist projections of the climate change cult:

    In Hydrological Sciences Journal, Demetris Koutsoyiannis and Christos Vournas found that the post-1900 increase in the CO2 concentration (from 300 parts per million to 420 parts per million) “has not altered, in a discernible manner, the greenhouse effect, which remains dominated by the quantity of water vapour in the atmosphere.”

    Writing in the journal Earth’s Future, W. Jackson Davis “documents an overall negative correlation between global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last 210 million years,” according to NoTricksZone.com. A “negative correlation” —i.e., when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 rises, more often than not temperatures fall.

    Like other scientists in earlier years, Allan T. Emrén, writing in the International Journal of Global Warming, “found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa.”

    Norwegians John K. Dagsvik and Sigmund H. Moen (a statistician and civil engineer, respectively), writing in a Statistics Norway discussion paper, concluded that “the effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear strong enough to cause systematic changes in the temperature fluctuations during the last 200 years.”

    Other scientists believe that the “hottest ever” summer that the climate change cult has hyped in 2023 (which actually, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, was the 15th hottest since 1910 on mean temperatures and 22nd hottest for maximum temperatures) wasn’t triggered by CO2, but by a significant increase in solar radiation and/or by the 2022 eruption of the Tonga-Hunga volcano having caused a 10 percent increase in water vapor in the atmosphere.

    Perhaps the greatest challenge to the climate change cultists’ belief that CO2 will cause catastrophic global warming is a study published in Nature partner journal Climate and Atmospheric Science by H. Nair and colleagues. Those scientists came to the arresting conclusion that “we would expect from a 100% switchover from fossil fuels to zero-emission renewables, the net radiative heating would increase drastically.”

    This, according to NoTricksZone.com, is due to “a dramatic reduction in climate-cooling aerosol (pollution) emissions,“ and, ”because aerosol emissions have a relatively greater climate impact by reflecting shortwave radiation, the net effect of transitioning to renewables will be to ‘drastically’ increase Earth’s temperatures over the coming decades.”

The above examples of scientific studies running counter to climate-change-cult orthodoxy indicate that the science surrounding the issue is anything but settled in the alarmists’ favor.

Let’s switch from the science to the economics of transitioning away from fossil fuel usage. If the climate change cult succeeds in radically suppressing fossil fuel usage, human societies would be much poorer. That would be a tragedy with potentially deadly consequences. While human beings can no more tame the climate than the legendary King Canute could control the tides, the fact is that it’s prosperity that best enables human beings to cope with the adverse weather events that will periodically assail us regardless of whether the world cools or warms.

Fossil fuels not only have the advantage of being much more reliable and steady than wind and solar, but they’re also more efficient and economical. The ever-astute Rupert Darwall computed, “Thanks to [Britain’s increased use of] renewables, 13.6 GW (15.6 percent) more generating capacity [in 2020 compared to 2009] produced 64.5 TWh (17.1 percent) less electricity.” This is a path to energy and therefore societal impoverishment. The economics of wind energy are brutal for taxpayers. Jonathan Lesser computed that “the average subsidy for each green job created will be over $2 million per year.”

It’s clear that there are plenty of reasons to slow down, if not halt, the frenetic drive to eliminate fossil fuels. The pell-mell charge toward renewables isn’t rational; rather, it’s the fanaticism of a quasi-religious cult.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ominous-rumblings-climate-change-cult

[I. I. Kaspov]

«Angola. Abandono da OPEP

Depois da Indonésia (2016), Catar (2019) e Equador (2020), foi a vez de Luanda deixar a organização que junta os países produtores de petróleo concorrentes dos EUA.
Teresa Nogueira Pinto
3 de Janeiro 2024

às
20:03

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Share on LinkedIn
Share on WhatsApp

    Email this Page

Angola. Abandono da OPEP

A15 de Setembro de 1960, em Bagdad, cinco países fundaram a OPEP, a Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo. Foram eles o Iraque, o Irão, a Arábia Saudita, o Kuwait e a Venezuela. A Organização cresceu e chegou a ter 16 membros. Hoje, tem 13. Além dos fundadores, são: Líbia (entrou em 1962), Emirados Árabes Unidos (1967), Argélia (1969), Nigéria (1971), Gabão (1975), Angola (2007), Guiné Equatorial (2017) e República do Congo (2018). A Indonésia, o Catar e o Equador já foram membros, mas abandonaram entretanto a OPEP, respetivamente em 2016, 2019 e 2020.

Desde 2016, para melhor combater a concorrência americana, dez outros países são associados formando a OPEP+: Rússia, Cazaquistão, Bahrein, Brunei, Malásia, Azerbaijão, México, Sudão, Sudão do Sul e Omã. A eles se juntará em 2024 o Brasil. No seu conjunto, o cartel representa cerca de 44% da produção diária mundial de petróleo e 81% das reservas mundiais comprovadas. Em 1965, instalou a sua sede em Viena, na Áustria, onde se mantém.

A semana passada, Angola anunciou que se retirava da OPEP a partir do próximo 1 de Janeiro. O pomo da discórdia foi a imposição pela OPEP que os seus membros reduzissem, uma vez mais, as suas quotas de produção, de modo a suster e mesmo aumentar os preços mundiais de referência do crude.

Na sua reunião no fim de Novembro, a Arábia Saudita, líder de facto da OPEP, impôs essa redução, particularmente gravosa para Angola e a Nigéria. No caso angolano, a OPEP pretendia uma diminuição de 70.000 barris, de 1,180 milhões para 1,110 milhões de barris diários. Ora, face às dificuldades da sua economia, Angola pretende mesmo incrementar a sua produção, abrindo 50 novos campos.

O Governo de Angola já tinha lamentado que a OPEP tivesse abandonado a sua habitual regra de decisão por unanimidade, e tivesse frustrado as suas legítimas expetativas de utilização do seu mais importante recurso natural.

Ao fim de 16 anos em que foi um empenhado membro da OPEP, o Governo do Presidente João Lourenço assumiu uma corajosa atitude de defesa da sua soberania nacional, lida internacionalmente como um sinal da crescente aproximação política aos Estados Unidos da América.

Angola é o terceiro maior produtor de petróleo de África, depois da Argélia, com 1.474 mil barris diários e da Nigéria com 1.450 mil barris por dia.

A decisão angolana põe a nu a insatisfação e quebras na coesão entre os membros do cartel, mas não deverá ter grande impacto no panorama geral, já que os cortes aprovados se aproximam dos 5 milhões de barris por dia e Angola pretendia manter apenas 70 mil da sua produção atual. Para mais, a produção de Angola está muito próxima da sua capacidade máxima de extração hoje em dia. O aumentar do volume de produção petrolífera vai-se fazer, mas necessita de tempo e avultados investimentos.

Por isso, é difícil entender a teimosia e inflexibilidade da OPEP, e o deixar que o descontentamento atinja posições de rutura. Sobretudo quando correm insistentes rumores de que grandes potência mundiais no domínio dos hidrocarbonetos, como os Emiratos Árabes Unidos, não escondem a sua aversão a terem a sua produção limitada a 3 milhões de barris diários quando pode facilmente atingir os 5 milhões. Se o exemplo de Angola pega…»


https://sol.sapo.pt/2024/01/03/angola-abandono-da-opep/

[I. I. Kaspov]

Onde é que anda o famigerado "Aquecimento global"?... Quando mais precisamos dele, ele parece abandonar-nos...   


«In pictures: Nordic states gripped by winter freeze

    Published

    12 hours ago

Nordic countries have recorded their coldest temperatures of the winter, with areas of Sweden and Finland dropping to as low as -40C this week. Here we select some of the most striking photos of the winter freeze.»


https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-67871751

[I. I. Kaspov]

Estes problemas poderão talvez afectar os preços dos combustíveis...     


«Red Sea attacks: 'Our shipping costs have jumped 250%'

    Published

    1 day ago

Related Topics

    Israel-Gaza war

Thomas O'Brien runs Boxer GiftsImage source, Boxer Gifts
Image caption,
Thomas O'Brien said his shipping costs had soared in the last two weeks
By Sam Gruet & Jonathan Josephs
BBC News

"Some of our costs have gone up 250%".

That is the reality for Thomas O'Brien, boss of family-run Boxer Gifts, which designs games and seasonal presents.

Their products are made in China so the Leeds-based firm relies heavily on global shipping. But attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have prompted long diversions to avoid one of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

Mr O'Brien is among business owners who have told the BBC this could lead to delays and price rises.

It follows a warning from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) that the disruption could have a knock-on effect on product availability and prices.

Chief executive Helen Dickinson said this was "as a result of higher transportation and shipping insurance costs".

"Over the coming months, some goods will take longer to be shipped," she added.

Guy Platten, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping warned "we won't see much of an impact until later on in January".

    What do Red Sea assaults mean for global trade?

The attacks are being carried out by the Houthi group which has declared support for Hamas and has said it was targeting ships travelling to Israel. It is not clear if all the ships that have been attacked were actually heading to Israel.

Because of this and the threat of future assaults, several of the world's largest shipping firms, including Mediterranean Shipping Company and Maersk, have diverted vessels away to a much longer route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope and then up the west side of the continent.
Chart showing various shipping routes

Mr O'Brien said this had led to shipping companies increasing their container costs. For Boxer Gifts that has amounted to a 250% increase in shipping rates in the past two weeks, he said.

The company said it would continue to absorb rising costs as much as possible, but if that prices rose further, the cost would have to be passed on. Delays are a problem too.

"We just about got used to shipments arriving on time after Covid, but at the moment with the Red Sea, that's adding another 10 to 14 days to shipments," Mr O'Brien said.

"You end up with a two or three week delay. We've got Valentine's Day products that are likely to be delayed and miss Valentine's Day.

"The same effect is going to be felt on Mother's Day meaning a huge chunk of our selling time for these games is missed".

    Who are the Houthi rebels attacking Red Sea ships?
    US destroys Houthi boats after Red Sea hijack attempt

The German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd told the BBC it would continue to avoid the Red Sea route until at least 9 January. It sends an average of 50 ships a month through the Suez Canal. Some 25 ships were diverted in the last half of December and 15-20 more will be impacted by today's decision.

MSC and Maersk two of the largest shipping lines in the world have paused journeys through the Red Sea until further notice. While, France's CMA-CGM is increasing its rates between Asia and the Mediterranean.

While there has been some disruption to supply chains already, Mr Platten, from the International Chamber of Shipping said it would take a few weeks before the problems are really noticed.

He said while insurance and fuels costs have gone up for shipping lines "goods are still getting through" because there is an alternative route available.

For Mr O'Brien, the financial hit of the ongoing disruption could be hundreds of thousands of pounds, but he said his main concern is letting customers down.

"That damage your reputation for a lot longer than the short term pain of some money," he said.
'Nightmare'
Rachael WaringImage source, Rachael Waring
Image caption,
Rachael Waring said some of her customers were waiting for furniture to arrive

Rachael Waring's furniture business has been hit with disruption too.

A container filled with her imported products was due to pass through the Red Sea before Christmas. Instead, it has been diverted around the Cape of Africa, along with many other cargo ships.

"I've got customers that most of the goods on one of the container was destined for, which is a nightmare because they won't have furniture," she said.

"It has a knock on effect for cash flow because that furniture has been paid for in advance, whereas I should be delivering and invoicing the customer now I can't for another month".

Ms Waring said the cost of paying for a container have trebled, and she expected prices to rise further.

"That increased shipment cost has to be taken into account for creating customers going forward. And that obviously is going to cause problems for inflation," she added.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at the Copenhagen-based shipping analytics platform Xeneta, said: "One extra million dollars of fuel costs is put on top of every voyage that goods around the Cape of Good Hope instead of Suez Canal."

But he said the increased charges shouldn't become fixed after the threat of attack on ships has subsided.

"Everyone needs to have their costs covered from an escalation, but they can't become embedded," he said.»


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67865064

[I. I. Kaspov]

Os horrores do "Aquecimento Global"...   

[I. I. Kaspov]

Pois...   

«Acha que está frio em Portugal? Termómetro marca -40ºC na Europa
ZAP
3 Janeiro, 2024
3 Janeiro, 2024

(dr)

Uma vaga de frio extremo atingiu o norte da Europa, causando perturbações e caos em grande parte da Escandinávia. Os meteorologistas alertam que as temperaturas deverão descer ainda mais.

A Finlândia e a Suécia registaram na terça-feira as temperaturas mais baixas deste inverno na região, com os termómetros a marcarem abaixo de -40º C, enquanto uma forte vaga de frio assola a região nórdica no extremo norte da Europa.

O frio e a neve afetaram os transportes em toda a região, bem como na Noruega, onde uma das principais estradas do país teve de ser fechada. Várias empresas que operam os ferries que ligam o sul da Noruega à Dinamarca, cruzando o estreito de Skagerrak, no Mar Báltico, cancelaram as viagens devido ao mau tempo.

A Suécia registou temperaturas abaixo de -40º C pela primeira vez desde 2021. Na pequena aldeia sueca de Nikkaluokta, habitada por membros da etnia Sami, foram registados -41,6º C na manhã desta terça-feira.
Ler também:

    28 graus em Dezembro: está a acontecer aqui ao lado
    Está frio? E que tal uma sensação de -63 graus?

“É a temperatura mais baixa que tivemos até agora neste inverno, e ainda vai continuar muito frio no norte”, disse o meteorologista da emissora sueca SVT, Nils Holmqvist.

Na cidade de Umea, no noroeste da Suécia, as temperaturas atingiram os níveis mais baixos em 12 anos.

Todos os comboios de passageiros a norte de Umea foram suspensos até quinta-feira devido ao alto risco de segurança gerado pelo frio extremo. A companhia ferroviária do país relatou problemas no tráfego de comboios em toda a região Ártica.
Mais frio a caminho

O Instituto Meteorológico e Hidrológico da Suécia (SMHI) registou temperaturas de -30º C em vários locais no norte do país e alertou para neve e ventos fortes nas regiões central e sul a partir das primeiras horas desta quarta-feira.

Segundo o SMHI, uma área de alta pressão transporta o ar extremamente frio até o nordeste da Suécia e o norte da Finlândia.
PUBLICIDADE

A temperatura mais baixa deste século na Suécia foi registada na cidade de Storbo em fevereiro de 2001, com -44º C.

Na vizinha Finlândia, a temperatura mais baixa deste inverno até agora foi observada na cidade de Ylivieska, no nordeste do país, com -37,8º C na manhã desta terça-feira.

Para o resto da semana, preveem-se temperaturas de -40º C em várias partes do país. A capital, Helsínquia, deverá ter entre -15º C e -20º C.»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/40oc-europa-575398

[I. I. Kaspov]

Até os telemóveis ficam logo com a bateria descarregada...   


«Está frio? E que tal uma sensação de -63 graus?

ZAP

8 Dezembro, 2023
8 Dezembro, 2023

cgc76 / Flickr

Uma região da Sibéria chegou aos 58 graus abaixo de zero, na terça-feira passada. O telemóvel fica sem carga em poucos minutos.

Muitos portugueses queixaram-se do frio ao longo desta semana. Em alguns locais de Portugal os termómetros foram a temperaturas abaixo de 0, como -3 graus em Bragança.

No entanto, há outras zonas do planeta em que tem estado – mesmo – frio.

Uma região da Sibéria chegou aos 58 graus abaixo de zero, na terça-feira passada.

A agência Reuters destacou o caso de Yakutsk, uma das cidades mais frias do mundo.

Um habitante local contou: “Tu sentes logo na cara, ficas imediatamente gelado. O meu telemóvel tinha 90% de bateria e, em 15 ou 20 minutos, ficou sem bateria“.

Outro habitante sorria: “Claro que está frio mas, como dizíamos na escola, não há mau tempo. Só precisamos das roupas adequadas e tudo corre bem. O essencial é continuarmos a mexer para que o sangue circule”.

Com a trilogia formada por temperatura, humidade e vento, os meteorologistas estimam que, a certa altura, a sensação térmica foi de 63 graus abaixo de zero.

Vantagem para as vendedoras no mercado? Não foi preciso utilizar arca congeladora – o peixe já se vendeu ultra-congelado, mesmo estando cá fora.»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/63-graus-negativos-571642

[I. I. Kaspov]

Le froid, toujours le froid...

[I. I. Kaspov]

About oil trading in the USA...

(from the famous WSJ)


«Page added on December 31, 2023
Bookmark and Share
6863 Votes

Meet America’s Newest Oil Trader Extraordinaire: Joe Biden

Meet America’s Newest Oil Trader Extraordinaire: Joe Biden thumbnail

Head of state. Commander in chief. Oil-trading whale?


President Biden’s unprecedented release of oil from America’s petroleum reserves in 2022 turned the White House into an unusually active player in the volatile crude market. The flood of emergency supplies helped arrest surging oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, and pulled billions of dollars into the Energy Department’s coffers in the process.

Oil prices have sputtered since and allowed officials who sold high to start replenishing U.S. stockpiles on the cheap. The question that will echo from Washington to Wall Street in 2024 is how the Biden administration might finish off a trade many investors would envy.

The Energy Department says it has already snapped up about 13.8 million barrels of crude, with accelerating deals in recent weeks signaling the agency could move more aggressively next year.

At an average price of $75.63 a barrel, the purchases so far total a nearly $270 million theoretical discount from last year’s average sale price of $95 a barrel.

The Energy Department will have about $3.45 billion left to buy more oil after those deliveries are complete, a spokeswoman said. That is enough cash for tens of millions more barrels of crude.

The Biden administration’s opportunity to build on its gains could slip away if prices rise. Benchmark U.S. crude changed hands Friday at $71.65 a barrel, well below the administration’s asking price of $79 or lower, even as fallout from the Israel-Hamas war threatens tankers in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.

Any major ramp-up in deals would come with challenges. It could strain the country’s ability to release emergency supplies, since storage sites can’t accept crude at the same time. The facilities, some of which are currently undergoing maintenance, are also limited in how much they can receive each month.

But some traders and analysts say locking in future purchases at today’s prices could help turn U.S. stockpiles into a force for market stability and expand America’s clout as an energy superpower.

“Even if it’s at a small size, being able to exert that muscle could be very valuable,” said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of the macroeconomic policy think tank Employ America.

The U.S. and other countries began amassing stockpiles in the 1970s, aiming to hold 90 days’ worth of net imports, after the Arab oil embargo sent prices skyrocketing in an inflationary shock to the American economy.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve peaked in size in 2010 near 727 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. Since then, booming shale output helped the U.S. become the world’s largest oil producer, and officials from both parties pushed to sell off some of the stockpiles to fund other projects.

Biden’s release after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the largest ever. Emergency sales of roughly 180 million barrels helped shrink the reserves to as little as 347 million barrels, a 40-year low.

The skyscraper-sized storage caverns in Texas and Louisiana now hold the equivalent of nearly 175 days’ worth of net imports, according to federal record-keepers. Canadian crude has also come to account for far more of the country’s imports, while supplies from the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies have plummeted.

Still, administration officials say they want to refill at least some of the reserves when the price is right.

The strategy has three prongs. The Energy Department has recovered some supplies from crude lent to refiners and returned with a premium this year. Congress also canceled previously scheduled sales totaling about 140 million barrels in exchange for $12.5 billion from the Energy Department’s account, according to the Dallas Fed.

Big purchases on the open market, relatively rare in recent decades, have proven to be the most difficult piece of the puzzle.

The Energy Department’s first attempt at buying oil this year failed. The agency later bumped up its target price from $72 a barrel and revamped its approach to contracts to limit suppliers’ risk while officials evaluated proposals.

The agency’s most recent contract, awarded Dec. 26, scheduled deliveries for March. Officials plan to “purchase as many barrels as possible, while getting the best deal for taxpayers,” a spokeswoman said. Additional monthly solicitations are expected at least through May.

The extension suggests the government is growing more comfortable with deals that have longer time horizons, said Ilia Bouchouev, managing partner of Pentathlon Investments.

If the U.S. is willing to expand that approach, Bouchouev said it could lock in cheaper contracts for deliveries in late 2024 and 2025 and avoid the risk that prices will rise.

“Buy it back at $75 [a barrel], claim victory for the taxpayers and call it done,” he said.

WSJ»


https://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/meet-americas-newest-oil-trader-extraordinaire-joe-biden

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/president-joe-biden-oil-trader-extraordinaire-e97947fb

[I. I. Kaspov]

Acerca da produção dos 5 maiores produtores nos anos mais recentes (até 2020):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

[I. I. Kaspov]

Muito interessante, acerca do "Climate change" & "Net zero nonsense", actualmente tão em voga, entre outras coisas:

Anti scientific woke - Dr. John Campbell

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEyDMMcI2jE

[I. I. Kaspov]

Who knows?? - but it seems indeed “highly unlikely”...


«Goldman: Oil Prices Could Double if Houthi Attacks Continue

By City A.M - Jan 06, 2024, 10:00 AM CST

    Houthi rebels have attacked commercial shipping more than 20 times since November, using various methods.
    Major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag Lloyd are avoiding Red Sea and Suez Canal routes due to security concerns.
    Operation Prosperity Guardian was initiated by the U.S. to protect commercial traffic, with support from other countries like the UK, Australia, and Canada.

Join Our Community
Oil prices

Houthi rebel disruptions reaching the Straits of Hormuz could double oil prices, Goldman Sachs has warned.

In an interview given to American television station CNBC yesterday, head of the company’s oil research division Daan Struyven said: “the Red Sea is a transit route and a prolonged disruption there, oil can be three or four dollars higher.

“However if you have a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz for a month, [oil] prices would rise by 20 per cent and could even eventually double if the disruption there lasted for longer,” he said.

Despite caveating that the situation was “highly unlikely”, Struyven’s comments join a collective of voices from across international business and politics decrying the situation in recent days.

Yesterday, former prime minister now foreign secretary David Cameron said in an interview to Sky News that the attacks “have to stop”.

“This is not just a British interest, it is global,” he said.

“The clear message, and over ten countries have signed a letter to the Houthis saying that these attacks are illegal and have got to stop and if they don’t, action will be taken.”

 Since November, the rebels have attacked commercial shipping in the Red Sea more than 20 times using missiles, drones, fast boats and helicopters.

In response, the U.S. in December announced Operation Prosperity Guardian to step up patrols of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to protect commercial traffic – ships from the UK, Australia and Canada are among the other countries also involved.

Early-mid December saw the occasional minor oil price spike as a result of the actions, but the volatility has remained largely subdued as the wider market remains soft.

More significantly however has been the reaction of major shippers to the protective responses such as Prosperity Guardian.

Maersk and Hapag Lloyd, two of Europe’s largest shipping companies, have refused to use the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, the former having had a vessel come under attack from rebels last weekend.

What began as seemingly isolated disruptions to Western commercial activities are now being seen by many to constitute targeted action in support of the Hamas cause as Israel continues to ramp up its attacks on Palestine.

Should they continue, they are likely to throw the already-chaotic state of global shipping in that area into further strife.

By City AM»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Oil-Prices-Could-Double-if-Houthi-Attacks-Continue.html

[I. I. Kaspov]

Frio extremo...   


«Oslo regista pela primeira vez temperatura abaixo de -30 graus Celsius

Leitura: 2 min

06 janeiro, 2024 às 10:01

Oslo regista pela primeira vez temperatura abaixo de -30 graus Celsius

Oslo enfrenta temperaturas muito negativas

HEIKO JUNGE /EPA


A temperatura desceu este sábado, pela primeira vez, abaixo dos -30 °C no município de Oslo, com -31,1 °C registados em Bjornholt, no norte da capital norueguesa.

JN/Agências
JN/Agências

Relacionados

Prepare os casacos: vem aí frio polar, vento e chuva

Frio extremo deixa milhares de pessoas sem eletricidade nos países nórdicos


-40ºC: frio extremo atinge os países nórdicos

Esta temperatura foi registada entre as 3 horas e as 4 horas locais (menos uma hora em Portugal continental), numa estação florestal do município, onde a temperatura mais elevada registada nas últimas 24 horas foi de -21,9 °C.

Pouco antes das 7 horas, a temperatura era de -29 °C, com uma sensação térmica de -37 °C, segundo o site yr.no, citado pela agência francesa AFP.
skoiy-media-ad-placeholder-300x600-pt.png

"A noite que acabámos de ter foi provavelmente a mais fria em relação ao que podemos esperar", disse Martin Granerod, um especialista do Instituto Meteorológico, entrevistado pela televisão pública NRK.

No centro da cidade de Oslo, a temperatura atingiu -21,5 °C durante a noite.
skoiy-media-ad-placeholder-300x250-pt.png

Nos últimos dias, o norte da Europa tem sido assolado por uma vaga de frio, com um mínimo recorde de -43,6 °C registado no norte da Suécia na quarta-feira, a temperatura mais baixa registada em janeiro no país em 25 anos.»


https://www.jn.pt/4418332812/oslo-regista-pela-primeira-vez-temperatura-abaixo-de-30-graus-celsius/

[I. I. Kaspov]

«Solar energy and electric car subsidies will end earlier than planned.»


Pode ser q comece a haver + algum bom senso...   


«Germany to cut green spending to meet budget rules

    Published

    13 December 2023

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and Economy and Climate Minister Robert HabeckImage source, Reuters
Image caption,
Chancellor Olaf Scholz denied his government was rowing back on its commitments to the green transition
By Ido Vock in London & Damien McGuiness in Berlin
BBC News

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that his coalition has reached an agreement over the budget after a month of crisis talks.

Germany's constitutional court ruled last month that next year's budget was illegal because it broke the law on taking on new borrowing.

Now the government has said it will stick to its low deficit commitments and cut some green subsidies instead.

Solar energy and electric car subsidies will end earlier than planned.

Mr Scholz's three-party coalition was thrown into crisis last month when the country's top court ruled that the budget for 2024 violated a constitutional clause banning Germany from running a deficit of more than 0.35% of GDP.

The resulting hole was only a small proportion of total spending, at some €17bn (£14.7bn), or about 3.8% of the total budget of €450bn.

    German cabinet in crisis after court outlaws budget

Still, talks to plug the gap proved politically painful. The three parties in the coalition could not agree over whether to cut spending or suspend the debt rules for the fifth year in a row.

In the end, the coalition agreed to cut subsidies for green energy and construction, as well as transport spending.

Announcing the deal, Mr Scholz denied that his government was rowing back on its commitments to the green transition.

"The government will stick to its goals... but we must do so with less money," he said.

As part of the new cuts, subsidies for electric car purchases and solar energy infrastructure will be phased out more rapidly than originally planned. The way Germany's railways are funded will also change.

Less spending on the electrical grid will mean consumers will pay more for electricity.

But about €3bn of subsidies to polluting industries will be cut and the price companies pay to emit carbon will be raised, partially offsetting the impact of the environmental cuts.

The German government - which is the biggest supporter of Ukraine in Europe - says support for Ukraine will remain unaffected. Germany will send the country about €8bn in aid next year, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said.

All three parties which back Mr Scholz have claimed wins in the spending agreement.

The chancellor's centre-left Social Democrats say they have limited cuts to the welfare state.

The pro-business Free Democrats are claiming credit for preventing new borrowing.

And the Greens say the government is sticking to its core environmental aims, even if certain schemes have been rolled back.

Germany's political culture is strongly averse to debt and deficits. But some economists say an aversion to high spending has led to persistent underinvestment in key infrastructure.

The country has one of the lowest public debts of the big developed countries.»


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-67709228

[I. I. Kaspov]

Pode ser q comecem a perceber q + vale subsidiar a agricultura (q produz a comida), do q subsidiar as tretas ditas verdes, q são exclusivamente prejudiciais para a sociedade (para as pessoas)...   


«German farmers blockade Berlin with tractors in subsidy row

    Published

    14 hours ago

Tractors line up outside Berlin's Brandenburg GateImage source, Getty Images
By Jessica Parker, Berlin correspondent
BBC News

Farmers in Germany are blockading roads in protest against subsidy cuts, with more than 500 tractors and trucks parked up by Berlin's Brandenburg Gate.

There are also reported blockages in Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony and Bavaria.

The subsidy cuts were designed to fix a budget crisis after a court ruled the government's 2024 budget was illegal.

But the cuts have backfired and there are fears the ensuing row could feed the far right's popularity.

Reacting to the blockades, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser warned that stopping people from going to work, school or to see a doctor "will cause anger and disagreement."

But farmers are enraged and their association, DBV, has called on the government to scrap all plans for cutting farmer's subsidies.

"Otherwise the supply of high quality food stuffs is jeopardised," warned DBV head Joachim Rukwied in a radio interview.

Ministers have been scrambling to plug a financial blackhole of tens of billions of euros after a bombshell ruling in November by Germany's constitutional court, which declared the government's budget illegal.

However subsequent proposals to end farmers' tax breaks on agricultural diesel have already been watered down, with the change now set to be phased in over time. The government also dropped plans to abolish preferential treatment in vehicle tax.

But it hasn't assuaged farmers' anger and, in heated scenes, a group of protesters even prevented the Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck from disembarking from a ferry last week.
tractors on a highwayImage source, EPA
Image caption,
Farmers are on strike across the coutnry

The demonstration drew widespread condemnation and sparked fresh fears about the radicalisation of political debate in Germany.

But the co-leader of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, said that the episode showed that the vice chancellor was "no longer taken seriously".

"And instead of seeking dialogue, he'd rather flee on a ferry," she wrote.

The AfD has been hitting record highs in the polls, consistently scoring above the three governing parties.

There are frequent reports of infighting and barely-disguised tensions within Germany's ruling traffic light coalition of Social Democrats, the Greens and Free Democrats.

Crucial regional elections later this year will test at least part of the country's mood with three eastern states - Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia - going to the polls.

Planned train drivers strikes will also pile further pressure on the coalition later this week.

Germany's GDL union said on Sunday that it would call on members to walk out from Wednesday as part of a wage dispute with rail operator Deutsche Bahn.

As the tractors pull up in central Berlin, it is an inauspicious start to the year for Chancellor Scholz's government and comes alongside predictions of lacklustre economic growth for a country often described as the EU's "powerhouse".»


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67911739

[I. I. Kaspov]

Acerca dos resultados da fantástica «descarbonização»:


«Big Oil’s Ambitious Decarbonization Strategies Have Gone Bust

By Alex Kimani - Jan 08, 2024, 7:00 PM CST


    A sharp focus on ESG and renewable energy has been cited as a big reason why European Big Oil stocks, including BP and Shell, are facing a considerable equity valuation gap with their U.S. peers.

    In 2023, various oil majors have made considerable changes to their renewable energy portfolios, keeping only the most profitable assets.

    Despite the revision of clean energy plans, Big Oil companies stand to benefit from $7 billion in subsidies from the U.S. government as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law to build seven regional hydrogen hubs.


Join Our Community
Offshore wind US


Back in February 2020, British oil and gas multinational BP Inc. (NYSE:BP) announced an ambitious goal to become net-zero by 2050 through, among other things, aggressively cutting oil and gas production and also undertaking one of the industry’s most expansive renewable electricity build-outs.

In April of the same year, deep in the throes of the oil price crash, BP’s Dutch peer Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL) warned that global oil demand had been permanently destroyed and effected its biggest dividend cut since the Second World War.

A year later, a Dutch court ordered Shell to cut its greenhouse gas emissions harder and faster despite the company having previously pledged to cut GHG emissions by 20% by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050. The court in The Hague demanded Shell to cut emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

Unfortunately, the global energy transition is proving more arduous than expected, which, combined with rising costs and profitability concerns, is forcing Big Oil companies to recalibrate their decarbonization goals to align with market realities.

Last year, BP unveiled a new decarbonization strategy that entails (1) a slower decline in upstream investments and scrapped former plans to shrink refining; (2)  focus more on higher-margin hydrogen and biofuels as well as offshore wind; and (3) higher spending in both oil and gas as well as low carbon. According to the company, the new strategy will offer higher shareholder returns, especially critical to the company after it severed ties with Russia’s Rosneft. BP’s nearly 20% stake in Rosneft helped to add several billion dollars to its bottomline.
Related: Oil Prices Slump by 4% As Demand Concerns Trump Supply Risks

Another hit to the decarbonization drive: the ESG investing boom of yesteryears has gone bust. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing spiked in 2020 and 2021 amid the COVID-19 pandemic with low oil prices driving more investments beyond fossil fuels, while fund managers tried to appear more climate-conscious. But the latest oil price boom; political backlash against ESG led by Republican politicians as well as claims about greenwashing have made ESG investing lose plenty of luster.

Indeed, LSEG Lipper data showed that in the first 11 months of 2023, ESG funds only managed to pull $68 billion in net new deposits, a sharp drop from $158 billion in 2022 and $558 billion for all of 2021, Energy Intel reports.

A sharp focus on ESG and renewable energy has been cited as a big reason why European Big Oil stocks, including BP and Shell, are facing a considerable equity valuation gap and continue to trade at a discount to their American counterparts.

Exxon: Too Much Renewables Could Backfire

It’s going to be interesting to see whether these European oil and gas majors will start adopting some of the more innovative, if somewhat disingenuous, decarbonization strategies that their American brethren have unveiled.

Last year, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) CEO Darren Woods urged companies to stop focusing on certain energy sources, such as renewable energy, to save the climate, warning that it would be a “huge mistake to be picking winners and losers and focusing on specific technologies”, according to Business AMBE. Instead, “we need to look more broadly and let the markets figure out which solutions deliver the most emissions reductions at the lowest cost," Woods said. Woods argued that an attempt to quickly move away from oil and gas immediately could be disastrous for clean energy, adding that producing less LNG, for example, something else–could lead to higher demand for dirtier fuels such as coal.

According to Woods, Europe should borrow a leaf from the U.S.’ approach to climate policy, adding that the continent risks driving companies away by over-regulating. Woods told Bloomberg that various carbon capture technologies under development in the U.S. will play a key role in the global decarbonization drive.

Back in April 2023, Woods touted Exxon’s burgeoning Low Carbon business, saying it has the potential to generate hundreds of billions in revenues and even outperform its legacy oil and gas business in the coming decades. According to Woods, the business could grow to generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue after the initial 10-year ramp-up.

"This business is going to look quite a bit different from the base business of Exxon Mobil. It is going to have a much more stable, or less cyclical, profile," Dan Ammann,  president of Exxon's two-year-old Low Carbon Business Solutions unit, has vowed.

Last year, Exxon Mobil signed a long-term contract with industrial gas company Linde Plc. (NYSE:LIN) involving offtake of carbon dioxide associated with Linde’s planned clean hydrogen project in Beaumont, Texas. Through the contract, Exxon will transport and permanently store as much as 2.2M metric tons/year of CO2 from Linde’s plant.

Exxon is hardly alone in ambitious CCS plans.

Last February, oil field services giant Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE:SLB) discussed its newly carved SLB New Energy unit which will focus on niches such as carbon solutions, hydrogen, energy storage, geothermal/ geoenergy and critical minerals each with a minimum addressable market of $10 billion, as reported by Bloomberg NEF.

Meanwhile, scores of Big Oil companies stand to benefit from $7 billion in subsidies from the U.S. government as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law to build seven regional hydrogen hubs.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Big-Oils-Ambitious-Decarbonization-Strategies-Have-Gone-Bust.html

[I. I. Kaspov]

Les Verts, toujours les Verts...   


«Green Shipping Aspirations Challenged by Aging Fleet

By Irina Slav - Jan 08, 2024, 4:00 PM CST


    The average age of container ships and tankers is the highest it has been in decades, delaying the transition to greener energy sources.

    Sanctions avoidance and high demand for older tankers have led to a reluctance to scrap and replace them with newer, eco-friendlier models.

    Uncertainty about the availability and effectiveness of alternative low-carbon fuels, combined with high retrofitting costs, is contributing to the industry's slow adoption of greener technologies.


Join Our Community
Shipping


The shipping industry is one of the focal points of the energy transition, given the amount of hydrocarbon fuels it uses.

Increasingly stringent rules about emissions from that industry have been one tool for pushing it into a transition direction.

Another should have been the regular process of scrapping old vessels and their replacement with new ones that use lower-carbon fuels. Only this is not happening.

The Financial Times reported recently that the average age of container ships has gone up to 14.3 years, which is the highest since 1993. In tankers, things are even worse from the transition perspective. The average age of tankers was 12.9 years in 2023, which is the highest since 2003.

Per shipping industry sources the FT spoke to, there appear to be two reasons for this rising age when it should be falling. Reason number one is sanction avoidance by shippers carrying Russian oil.

Dubbed “a shadow fleet,” these tankers are often old ones that would normally have been scrapped and replaced. Instead, they are being used actively.

The shadow fleet is also being used to ship other sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela, but it really caught everyone’s attention when the G7 tried to simultaneously stifle Russian oil trade and keep the world well supplied with crude by imposing a price cap for Russian oil.

Attempts are being made to rein in the fleet of old tankers that have a higher risk of an environmental accident due to their age, the latest among them from the European Union.

The European Commission proposed in November last year that the bloc ban sales of old tankers to Russia in a bid to curb its international trade on old tankers. The EC proposal also stipulated that contracts for tanker sales to third parties included clauses that the vessels could not be resold to Russia unless they would carry oil sold below the G7 price cap.

While the EU devises increasingly eccentric measures to enforce sanctions against Russia, shipowners are cashing in on the strong demand for tankers, regardless of their age.

The price for a 15-year-old Aframax tanker has surged by 129% since February 2022, according to data from shipbroker Gibson cited by the FT. Such an Aframax currently costs $40 million. Sending it to the scrapyard, on the other hand, would only generate some $9.2 million on average.

As a result, shipowners “aren’t scrapping because there’s so much money to be made,” according to a Gibson research director who spoke to the FT. But it’s not just the money to be made from using and trading old tankers. There is also unease about low-carbon fuels and their availability.

Several alternatives to hydrocarbon fuels are being considered at the moment, including ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. Large shippers are ordering new vessels operating with these new fuels, but they are still a very small minority of the global fleet.

Maersk Tankers, for instance, recently ordered ten very large ammonia carriers from Hyundai, but reports on the news noted that it has yet to design the vessels to run on that new fuel. Yet the deal is not final since the company said in its news release that “a decision to install ammonia capable engines requires both regulatory and customer support.”

Methanol, another alternative to hydrocarbons, is also making inroads into the shipping industry. Shipping major COSCO, for example, recently sealed a deal for three Aframax tankers that would have dual-fuel system—featuring methanol as one of the fuels. Another three tankers on order by the Chinese company would be methanol-ready, meaning they could be converted to methanol at some point in the future.

All this suggests a certain readiness among the largest players in the shipping industry to do their bit for the transition, but the industry as a whole is not exactly bursting with enthusiasm. And it has a very good reason for this.

A few years ago, the International Maritime Organization promoted LNG as an alternative to fuel oil to reduce sulfur emissions. Yet LNG has since come into the sights of transition advocates who argue it should not be considered a bridge fuel and its use should be discouraged. With a new focus on methane from regulators in certain jurisdictions, LNG will remain the focus of attention, heightening uncertainty for shippers.

There is also the cost of retrofitting existing tankers for a greener era. According to a Maritime Executive report from September last year, converting an existing tanker or other vessel to ammonia or methanol would cost between $5 million and $15 million. The report notes that retrofitting older vessels makes no sense as they are likely to reach the end of their lives before the investment pays off.

On top of it all, shipbuilding capacity has dropped over the past 13 years—and by a substantial 35%—per Gibson data cited in the FT report. Even if all shipowners decided to go green, the actual process would take decades because of this reduced shipbuilding capacity following a consolidation wave in the past decade.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Green-Shipping-Aspirations-Challenged-by-Aging-Fleet.html

[I. I. Kaspov]

E acerca dos estados q + têm contribuído para a produção dos USA:


«The 11 States Leading America’s Oil Production Boom

By Robert Rapier - Jan 02, 2024, 4:00 PM CST


    Texas dominates U.S. oil production, contributing 42.6% of the total output, mainly due to the Permian Basin.
   
New Mexico has seen a dramatic 190% increase in oil production over the past five years, becoming the second-leading oil producer in the U.S.

    California faces a 30.7% reduction in oil production over the past five years, largely due to political and geological challenges.


Join Our Community
Oil Production

U.S. oil production has increased by 21% over the past five years. According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), earlier this month U.S. oil producers set a new annual production record.

This increase is being driven by a surge of production in a handful of states. I thought it might be of interest to look at which states are contributing the most to U.S. oil production, and how much production has changed over the past five years.

Total production for 2023 is not yet available, but monthly numbers are available through September (as well as weekly number through mid-December). I averaged oil production over the past 12 months (October 2022 through September 2023) for the entire U.S., as well as for every state that reported oil production in the past five years. (See the data source here).

Here were the Top 11 oil-producing states over the past year. Production is in million barrels per day (BPD).

Top 10 Oil Producers

Top 11 Oil-Producing States in 2023. ROBERT RAPIER

Texas is contributing the largest share to the production record at 42.6% of the U.S. total. This is primarily due to surging production in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin effect can also be seen in New Mexico’s incredible 190% surge over the past five years. New Mexico is now the country’s second-leading oil producer.

Production in North Dakota is still above one million bpd, but oil production there is down from its peak. However, North Dakota production has been increasing this year, and is up 17% over the past year.

Five of the eleven states shown have seen production decline over the past five years. If you wonder why I listed eleven states, it was primarily to include Ohio, which has not historically been thought of as one of the leading oil producers. Ohio’s production is still modest relative to states like Texas and New Mexico, but it is growing due to development in the Utica Shale in the Appalachian Basin.

A hundred years ago, California was the country’s top oil producer. In the late 1980s, California was still producing over one million bpd. But production has been in steady decline there, due to politics and unfavorable geology that rendered hydraulic fracturing less appealing than in midwestern oil and gas formations. Over the past five years, California’s 30.7% decline in oil production is the largest among top producers.

One major area of production that I didn’t consider here was federal offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past year, that contributed another 1.84 million bpd, which is 9.3% higher than it was five years ago (and just under the record 1.898 million bpd level set in 2019).

By Robert Rapier»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-11-States-Leading-Americas-Oil-Production-Boom.html

[I. I. Kaspov]

Acerca dos EV's na Alemanha...

[I. I. Kaspov]

Acerca dos brilhantes resultados da "Transição energética", "Climate change" e ideias afins...


«Activist Investors Drop ESG Campaigns on Lack of Profits

By Innovation Policy Blog - Jan 09, 2024, 5:30 AM CST


    Consultancy Alvarez & Marsal: activist investors were less likely to engage in ESG campaigns this year after they proved to be markedly less lucrative than campaigns that focused on effecting operational or strategic change.

    The research focused on 550 activist shareholder campaigns that took place between 2016 and 2021 at companies in the U.S. and Europe.

    Activist investors have been an important tool for bringing the climate change agenda closer to the management of companies in the energy industry.


Join Our Community
Rig


Activist investors’ love for sustainability-related shareholder campaigns appears to be growing cold in the absence of any practical outcomes, a consultancy has said.

Per Alvarez & Marsal, as quoted by Bloomberg, activist investors were less likely to engage in ESG campaigns this year after they proved to be markedly less lucrative than campaigns that focused on effecting operational or strategic change.

“As investors focus more firmly on returns in 2024 in a challenging market, we expect to see a decline in ESG-related campaigns and a renewed focus on metrics such as margin growth, cash generation and return on capital,” Alvarez & Marsal managing director Andre Medeiros said.

The consultancy looked at 550 activist shareholder campaigns that took place between 2016 and 2021 at companies in the U.S. and Europe.

According to an analysis of the campaign outcome data, the consultancy found that investor campaigns that focused on change in the operational or strategic departments, outperformed the market by an average 9.4% over the past six years.

At the same time, campaigns focused on sustainability-related aspects of a company’s activities outperformed the market at a much more modest rate of 0.2% over the six-year period.

Activist investors have been an important tool for bringing the climate change agenda closer to the management of companies in the energy industry and for forcing public energy companies to make commitments for emission reduction and investments in low-carbon energy.

However, these investments have failed to produce the returns that most investors would like, which recently led to a couple of U-turns at supermajors BP and Shell—both previously fully committed to directing more money to things like wind, solar, and EVs, while reducing their core business of producing and marketing oil and gas. The reason cited for the change in strategy was consistent underperformance of these investments as opposed to cash spent on core business.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Activist-Investors-Drop-ESG-Campaigns-on-Lack-of-Profits.html